QUICK WRAP OF RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK

Just looking very quickly at the data before I go on to some photography this evening, to get more materials for the refreshing of the website this year (more on that to come).


We are still no closer to better guidance from the modelling tonight but important to show you where they are at.


I will be issuing flooding charts and severe weather risks once I am satisfied that the modelling is more reliable. We are not there yet, I may have charts out as early as tomorrow or Monday so stay tuned.


Meanwhile a broad areal flood watch is in place across the inland of the nation.


Lets look at the data


00Z CMC - Rainfall Next 10 Days

The moisture is still expected to move southeast but not stop over western NSW and soak a lot of SA, including Ag Areas. The whole of the NT is wet and another tropical system off the NW of Australia may lead to further torrential falls. The rainfall over the east is patchier with the current guide. The weather is expected to be wet over the east - I have reviewed the broader data sets and it is wetter over the east than what this shows. The drier areas of the nation will be Tasmania and SWLD of WA.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Next 10 Days

Moisture is expected to be widespread over the north and northwest and anticipated to come south and southeast through eastern WA and northern SA. The moisture may then get a second life with a deepening trough over the eastern Inland of QLD, NSW and into VIC later next week with heavy falls and areas of flooding. Parts of the QLD coast may be in a more stable northeast flow with only passing showers with the trough axis inland keeping the heavy rain there. The increasing rainfall signals north of Australia should be a sign of more tropical mischief nearing Australia Day.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Next 10 Days

Very similar with the Euro tonight which is the first time we have seen good agreement between the major models so it is similar to the synopsis for the Euro.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Heavy rainfall set to increase further in the medium term, especially over the tropics. I do think we will be dealing with multiple tropical lows during the period to end the month, enhancing rainfall near these features. These will drift south over already wet ground in the eastern and southeastern as well as the central interior. WA needs a tropical low to form well out in the Indian Ocean to get rainfall back on the forecast.

More to come on Sunday morning.

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