Warm and sunny in the southeast today but very warm to hot over the northern inland of NSW and into southern and central QLD, a full spring preview underway.
Cloud increasing for southern SA with showers developing this afternoon with the chance of gusty thunderstorms. These will spread into VIC this evening.
Widespread rainfall with moderate to heavy falls for eastern VIC and much of NSW on Monday.
Snowfalls lowering to 700m on Tuesday, could blanket some of the Southern and central Tablelands communities in white in NSW!
A cooler drier surge spreading throughout the nation mid week.
The weather is set to turn very spring like today with a strong cold front approaching from the southwest, dragging in warm to hot air from the interior and pushing it over the southeast and eastern inland.
Cold front now approaching the southeast states, you can see that motion of the warm air being drawn through the central and eastern parts of the nation. Still have moisture that has hung back over SA, it is being propelled southeast by the upper level winds. Moisture also being fed through eastern QLD and drawn south into NSW today so you will see an uptick in cumulus clouds in response to that this afternoon.
The front should arrive in SA this evening with showers increasing ahead of the front as it moves through the southern parts of the state. The front itself may pack a punch with a line of thunderstorms and gusty winds accompanying the passage.
The showers and storms will then spread out and enter VIC with light to moderate rainfall for the most part. Ahead of this band of rain and storms, another batch of showers and thunder will develop over inland NSW and spread southeast through the state. This area of convection will then form the rain band that soaks the state on Monday into Tuesday. Modelling also suggesting light to moderate rainfall for southern QLD with this feature which would be welcome.
A low pressure system is likely to form on the front but where that forms will determine the spread of the heavy rain over central and southern NSW.
The rest of the nation during this period will be settled and seasonal, though cooler drier air will begin to flush out the humidity over the north, where some shower activity is possible, especially ahead of the dry line mid week.
Another set of fronts looks to emerge for SWLD of WA mid to late week, this being the focus of the wet weather from mid to late next week as the low in the east begins to move away. The speed of that low moving away will determine how strong the frontal weather is for SA and then VIC and NSW.
Rainfall for the coming 10 days
As mentioned, the most widespread rainfall event on the board is coming through SA and VIC tonight and then throughout NSW and southern QLD during Monday and Tuesday. The bulk of the most widespread rainfall will be Monday afternoon through Tuesday night across the east. The low pressure system is the wildcard in all of this with the chance of some heavier falls than what is being forecast. The low moves away by mid week at this stage. Frontal weather returns to the west with showers increasing mid week and persisting into next weekend. Some of that may already be impacting the east by this time next week. And showers over the north with a taste of the build up will clear out of the NT by mid week with the dry surge. Showers in the trade winds over FNQ may persist this week.
The extended outlook for the early part of September and we can see that another long wave approaches WA with a series of cold fronts, clearly meaning that the wettest weather will return back to the west coast of the nation, however the fronts themselves may make the distance into SA and the southeast states with patchy rainfall from time to time with the continuation of the temperature fluctuations.
Note a larger rain event approaches in the early part of September connected to the Indian Ocean Dipole which spreads rainfall from northwest to southeast over most of the south and east, that is an event to watch in the medium term.
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern Next 2 weeks
12Z GFS Rainfall Next 2 weeks
I will have more on the rainfall and potential severe weather event for the east later this morning along with a 2 week outlook. Then the detailed state by state short term forecasts up this evening as we roll into another interesting week.