Hope you are all having a good evening,
The rainfall where it is falling is light to moderate and a good soaking rainfall. Many locations pushing up to 10mm in western NSW, some exceeding it and more rainfall is coming tonight and into Friday, before clearing eastwards.
Finally the rainfall has found Adelaide and the surrounds in recent hours.
Satellite Imagery - Valid 930pm EST
A nice looking mid and high level cloud band with areas of light to moderate rainfall. Some heavier falls have moved through east of Adelaide coming through the Riverlands and Murraylands overnight, some areas could get 10mm from that area of rainfall ontop of what has fallen. That rain near the low moving into western NSW overnight and into Friday.
State of Play - Valid 930pm EST.
The low has started to drift towards the east northeast, now cut off from the westerly flow to the south but it will be reabsorbed into the westerly belt tomorrow night and clear offshore Saturday ahead of the frontal weather to come.
The low is weakening with the system expected to open up into a trough during this time tomorrow before being absorbed into the northwesterly flow.
That is ahead of that wild weekend of weather over southeastern Australia.
GFS 06z - Upper flow pattern at 18000ft for the coming 2 weeks.
The frontal weather looks very active over the weekend and recent runs have shifted north again so this could now increase the risk of severe weather, severe cold and more showers over the southeast inland, but will review in the morning before increasing/upgrading forecasts. NOTE the pattern continues to support wintry weather until the 7th of August.
GFS 06z - Rainfall and surface pressure pattern for the coming 2 weeks.
Significant weather this weekend over the southeast will be the focus of the weather coverage tomorrow with that potentially bringing widespread damaging winds to areas already hit hard by damaging wind events this winter. Then some follow up systems to review this time next week, some chance they could also bring severe weather and widespread rainfall. Seeing more moisture with the feature coming through from WA next Friday, with a band of rainfall moving through the south and east.
And we will look at the pattern flip from the second week of August which seems to be a fair estimate of when high pressure digs further south opening the door for moisture to move around a bit through northern Australia and maybe easterly winds returning with that large high moving in from the west.