QUICK UPDATE ON THE GUIDE FOR RAINFALL IN THE EAST

Latest precipitable water values for the coming week are improving somewhat for QLD and northern NSW later this week, but can it translate into rainfall?


Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 weeks - GFS 06z run

Note the pooling of the high precipitable water values/moisture further west in this run compared to the previous run, that would bode for more widespread rainfall for a large area of the eastern inland of QLD and northern NSW. This would see well below average temperatures as well. Again no real assistance in increasing confidence. But will review in the morning to see how it compares with a fresh data sets.

The rainfall guide has shifted a tad, I do believe the rainfall would be more widespread based upon the precipitable water so again LOW confidence forecast strap applies to this period beyond about Thursday.


In the short term, a front bringing showers to the southwest on Monday into Tuesday will then spread east to coastal SA and then southeast VIC on Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers will increase along the east coast and I will review the numbers in the morning as there could be some locally moderate to heavy falls along the NSW coast.


Rainfall for the next 16 days - GFS 06z run. I do believe the rainfall may be further west on current guidance, but it will shift as we go through the coming days.


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