QUICK UPDATE ON THE EASTERN INLAND RAINFALL EVENT

Latest GFS has updated and it again is shifting around the rainfall and moisture for the east. This is again due to fluctuations in the speed, placement and scale/intensity of weather systems moving in and around a trough over the eastern inland.


The trough is now being shunted a little quicker to the east and activating a little further east in the 06z run this evening. So will have to see how this stacks up with the morning 12z run from all the models.


GFS 06z Precipitable Water Values - next 7 days. Valid Monday 28th of June 2021.

Note the low pressure system retrogrades west southwest of Victoria, injecting a large amount of drier air between the trough over the eastern inland away from the east coast, meaning the rainfall will contract quicker to the east under this solution. If the low becomes stationary and does not move west, then rainfall will increase over the eastern inland. If the low moves east, it will also clear the rainfall out of the east quicker.



As a consequence the rainfall has come down in this latest update from GFS. But it is not consistent so I wont change the rainfall forecast tonight in my products based off this, but it will change in the morning.


GFS 06z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Note the rainfall back through QLD, and coming down over the southeast of NSW, but again this is one run and will likely change again in the morning.

Here is the Korean Rainfall for the coming 10 days, also has more rainfall back through QLD tonight than this morning's run.


KMA Rainfall 00z Run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday 28th June 2021.


Will keep an eye on trends with updates tomorrow morning in the National Weather Picture AM Edition


The changes will continue in line with the low confidence forecast that still applies to this period of Thursday through Sunday.


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