QUICK SUNDAY MORNING WEATHER CHECK

  • Cold this morning through the southeast with frost widespread over the inland.

  • Showers are clearing along the east coast with a low moving away to the east.

  • A few showers grazing the coast of SA today will move into the southeast districts tonight and VIC on Monday.

  • Powerful cold front to bring the next batch of rain and storms into WA on Monday with that system expected to pass through the south and east mid week.

Satellite - Valid Sunday 11th of July 2021.

The wave train starting to crank in the southern ocean with a weakening system south of SA bringing cloud and isolated showers today, they will increase a touch on Monday. Another stronger system interacting with moisture from the Indian Ocean will bring the next chance of moderate to heavy rainfall to the southwest of WA on Monday. A low in the east moving away but it is clear elsewhere.

A closer look at that front moving through SA. Drier air has undermined the rainfall a tad through the inland but offshore there is s till a rain band, with a little low sitting behind it. The system will continue to slow down producing scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm on Monday through the southeast.

Temperatures - Sunday 11th of July 2021.

A cold start once again through the southeast and the southwest where high pressure in both areas bringing a frosty start with clear skies and light winds. Cold all the way through to the central interior. Warmer air continues for NW WA, northern NT and Cape York under an upper high.

Another day, another frost for inland areas, but the day should be fine and mostly sunny with temperatures still below average in the east, but above average in the west into SA.

Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Sunday 11th of July 2021.

Rainfall easing over the east, now we are starting to see that bias of westerly winds bringing the rainfall through Australia over the coming week or so. Heaviest falls will be anywhere exposed to a westerly wind regime. The other factor will be how moisture can be infused into the westerly flow and frontal weather.


12Z GFS - Surface Pressure pattern and rainfall for the next 16 days - Valid Sunday 11th of July 2021.

The synoptic flow is largely unchanged this morning, with fast moving fronts passing across Australia's south with a deep low rolling through the Southern Ocean producing windy wet weather for most of the southern states. Once that system gets to your east, a colder southwest flow and showery weather will become more wintry before easing, we will see that happen west to east this week. Northwest cloud band is still out in the medium term, even though the system in this run is heading south southeast rather than more southeast, it says to me that the flow pattern may become more wavy beyond this week, bringing up the rainfall chances thanks to the Indian Ocean which means better inland follow up rainfall chances

12Z GFS - Precipitable Water for the next 16 days - Valid Sunday 11th of July 2021.

The moisture is well and truly still passing through Australia over the coming fortnight. You want to see lots- of green and blue on the board. But that above average moisture must connect with low pressure which then sees rainfall increase (as we saw in the east on Friday). You can see that impact of a front linking up with moisture in the Indian Ocean this morning heading towards WA.

12Z GFS - Rainfall for the next 16 days - Valid Sunday 11th of July 2021.

Excellent signs for winter rainfall over southern WA, through southern SA, southern and central NSW, VIC and TAS. Anywhere exposed to those westerly winds and along the windward slopes of the divide will do best. This pattern should last to about Saturday before winds turn southwesterly and then ease. We then watch the Indian Ocean in the medium term also, as once again that may provide follow up rainfall into the third week of July.

I will have a full wrap of the state by state weather this afternoon, a closer look at the moisture gathering in the Indian Ocean for those farmers wanting more follow up rainfall, a national weather wrap as well and much more.


Happy Sunday.


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