I will have another look later this afternoon at all the data with more details.


  • The rain has pushed towards the east, with widespread showers along the coastal fringe tending to rain at times today with a few moderate to heavy falls about.

  • A clearer day inland through of the south and east, as well as warming up over the north with an upper high building.

  • After the wild weather and flash flooding in some parts of SW WA, the showers begin to ease today.

National Satellite Picture - Saturday 10th of July 2021

Major low pressure system sitting off the east coast will drive wet weather for the NSW coast today, between Port Stephens and Wollongong. Showers and storms moving along the south coast of WA will ease this afternoon, the main weather moving into the Bight. Otherwise it is fine and sunny elsewhere with no complications.

12z GFS Upper Flow Pattern next 2 weeks - Valid Saturday 10th of July 2021

Some aggressive waves coming through the southern ocean during the next 2 weeks, keeping an eye in the short term on the frontal weather this Monday for WA which brings more heavy rainfall, that system to bring widespread falls to the southern and eastern states Tuesday and Wednesday and another vigorous front on Friday and Saturday that may bring some very cold air and another band of moderate rainfall for the south and east. Beyond that there is moisture to play with and weather systems to lift that moisture up.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Values next 2 weeks - Valid Saturday 10th of July 2021

Substantial moisture for rain fall to increase over the southern states this week and the adjacent inland regions as well. Stronger moisture surge expected next weekend over WA that will move southeast, but this morning we are seeing GFS out of phase with that moisture

00z GFS Upper Flow Pattern next 2 weeks - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021

This was last night with the moisture more in phase with the frontal weather moving through the south and southeast for the second week of the outlook period. So again this will be on again off again! But keep watching. All modelling currently has a large plume of moisture coming into the nation from next weekend. But it is how it is utilised that is not certain.

12z GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 10th of July 2021

No huge change in the rainfall spread for the coming 10 days, we will get a better handle on the rainfall distribution by tomorrow night once the low in the east moves away and the major front with moisture offshore WA comes into the Australian Upper Air Network to be monitored in real time and that data comes back to the modelling. Then more confidence can be placed in the rainfall.

12z KMA Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 10th of July 2021

Thought I would use the Korean Model to show you the similarities as to where models are picking up the boundary between the hot air to the north and the cooler air to the south. That zone I still believe will be an area to watch for inland rainfall potential.

12z Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 10th of July 2021

Rainfall looking very winter like with all the areas exposed to the westerly wind regime set to do best over the coming week but again a little too light with the inland rainfall potential.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Saturday 10th of July 2021.

Rainfall retreating back to a traditional westerly set up over the coming 10 days with two major long waves to pass through the sequence and a few short waves in between. So the rainfall won't come all at once if you are living through the southern parts of the nation. Still have northwest cloud band signals outside of this chart with the potential for follow up falls for those needing more.

Euro C Ensemble - Temperature Anomalies - June 10-20th 2021.

Interesting that the Euro is place a lot of heat through inland portions of WA which is right where the rainfall being picked up through the inland. I think it is running a bit too hot for SA, but we will see. Extra heat at this time of year, clashing with the colder air to the south, especially a system that is being progged by some models at the top of this page can create some really dynamic weather out of nowhere. Early spring perhaps??

More details to come this afternoon - have a great Saturday.

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