• Cold air still passing through the southeast today but the weather is greatly warming in the upper atmosphere from the west, despite another weaker cold front later.

  • Showery weather increasing over WA later tonight and into Monday. Some moderate to heavy falls possible on Monday afternoon for the SWLD.

  • Fine weather continues for the northern and eastern interior.

  • More frontal passages for the south this week with more follow up rainfall for the southern states.

National Satellite.

Solid frontal weather continues to roll through the southern ocean with the bulk of the weather from last night sitting off the NSW coast and heavy showers, hail and near sea level snow over TAS. The air is cold enough for snow down to about 400m. Moisture increasing from the Indian Ocean will link into a cold front that is lifting north from southwest of WA. That will continue to produce a significant increase in cloud later today into Monday.

State of Play - Sunday Morning.

The jet stream in the green is dragging in that moisture from the northwest Indian Ocean but it is not as deep as last week. But the moisture is likely to be lifted by the front southwest of Perth. The frontal systems are roaring through the southeast and the upper high over the north is keeping northern Australia dry. However the tropical easterly winds on the northern flank of that upper high is pushing tropical moisture west into the northern Indian Ocean via the Arafura and Timor Seas.

GFS 18z - Upper air pattern for the coming 12 days

The major cold front and cold outbreak has moved through overnight through a deep westerly flow continues to bring a cold day for Sunday increasing the shower coverage once again this afternoon over inland areas. Another front due in the southwest on Monday will race to the east Tuesday, another front in the west Tuesday races east Wednesday another stronger front Wednesday races into the east Friday and that system may be the strongest feature of the sequence. More frontal weather continues into the weekend and early part of August as forecast last week. But there are signals things may flip with heights coming down in the upper atmosphere over the nation.

GFS 18z - Surface pressure pattern for the coming 12 days

Showery bursts expected regularly over the course over the week. That will bring gales to the nation as well from time to time, and damaging wind advice and farmers and graziers advice will be issued again this week. Moderate rainfall expected through coastal areas, with some of that drifting inland from time to time with the fronts moving inland a bit later in the period. There is evidence that moisture may be lifted into a large band of rainfall over the east later in the week.

Euro 12z - Precipitable Water for the coming 10 days.

Elevated PW values are expected to become infused into the westerly flow once again with the fronts themselves to bring moderate to heavy bursts of rainfall as they pass through. The front in WA tomorrow looks to bring widespread rainfall and some heavy falls. That front will come through the southeast with moderate falls developing Tuesday. Another front developing in the west mid week looks to bring in more moisture and then again during Friday. Later in the week, the moisture looks to be lifted into inland rainfall over eastern SA, northern VIC, NSW and now southern QLD. That system has been pinging since last week and remains the one to watch during the outlook. Note the moisture values over the northern parts of the nation as well at the end of the period, so the dry season weather may be taking a break into early August.

Euro 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days.

The models are in good agreement for the coming 3 fronts this week for the south and keeping the north and east dry and quite hot. But it is the last front is the one to watch Friday into the weekend across the nation into the eastern inland. That is certainly the one that offers some hope for those hanging out for more rainfall. It also offers some more issues for those who do not want rainfall. The zonal flow starts to break down a bit at the end of the period.

Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall again largely unchanged from last night, I have lifted the rainfall for the west coast of WA and into western TAS. The rainfall for the coming 10 days is heaviest for those areas exposed to a westerly wind. The rainfall over coastal areas of southeast SA and southwest VIC may exceed 40mm. Inland rainfall later next week into the weekend with light to moderate totals are possible if you follow the median of all models this morning for SA through NSW and northern VIC. But the forecast confidence is low, with rainfall increasing and decreasing from run to run.

Euro 12z - Rainfall expected for the coming 10 days.

Zonal flow and frequent fronts over the south bringing up the rainfall again for southern areas, the heaviest of the falls for those exposed to the westerly wind regimes once again. Note the moisture through inland SA extending into inland NSW. So once again there is some signals for rainfall increasing later in the period. Dry for now over QLD and the NT.

CMC 12z - Rainfall expected for the coming 10 days.

Similar moisture spread for the south of the nation this week. But note the moisture through outback WA and into western NT which is a better position for moisture to drift in from to produce rainfall for QLD and northern NSW and northern SA.

GFS 18z - Rainfall expected for the coming 12 days.

GFS still holding firm with the frontal barrage and continues to deliver 10-12 more days of the frontal weather with limited moisture coming into the northwest of the nation, but inland NSW and SA could continue to pick up on light to moderate rainfall accumulating through this period but nothing outrageous.

More weather details to come throughout the day including a 2 week forecast at about lunchtime.

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