QUICK LOOK AT THE SYSTEMS COMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

The guidance is improving on the weekend system, where moisture diving southeast from the interior into the frontal system is expected to see more widespread rainfall develop this weekend over VIC and inland NSW.


Rainfall numbers are coming up thanks to the moisture being lifted by the front and trough, but also thanks to the tight thermal gradient setting up.


Precipitable Water Values are looking much better and also increasing for the northeast of NSW as well as the moisture becomes slow moisture through the jet stream.


18Z GFS Precipitable Water Values over the weekend.

Note the moisture becomes quite pronounced as it comes through southern VIC through to inland NSW - where the cloud and rainfall starts to increase during Saturday.

18Z GFS Rainfall over the weekend into next week with the moisture being ultilised twice. The moisture moves through southern NSW but then moves north later in the weekend before it is picked up by another system that rolls through the southeast of the nation and begins to break out more rainfall over northern inland NSW and possibly southern QLD.

18Z GFS Precipitable Water Values over the weekend and into next week shows that moisture becoming stuck into next week before the colder drier air surges north and pushes the moisture northwest back into the tropics.

18Z GFS Rainfall for the next 2 weeks.

That moisture then begins to increase the chances of rainfall over the northern tropics which is in response to the pattern flip with the upper heights coming down, the high pressure moving on. The air is able to support a few pop up showers and thunderstorms, which is a good sign for those in parts of QLD and SA which have missed out on rainfall.

More on this tomorrow.

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