We have a much colder airmass moving through the southeast and east of the country today saying farewell to that warm soupy air, but it won't be cold for too much longer with a few milder days to return for early in the week. Out west, your fine and warm spell has begun with a week of glorious weather on the way near ridging.

But with the longer nights and drier airmass over southeast inland parts of the nation there is the risk of some local frost Sunday morning.

Still eyeing off a settled start to the week, but then watching the emergence of this upper level disturbance, and really, you will see in modelling tonight and tomorrow, divergence amongst agencies, and for those frustrated by the lack of clarity on this system, that is normal for May and these upper level systems. Once we get the complex into the Australian Upper Air Network will we see the modelling tighten in their handling of the feature as it moves into the south or southeast/east.

Will we see rainfall develop in a more widespread fashion over the southeast and eastern inland with frontal weather and upper trough as it moves through mid week? This is unclear but certainly a MODERATE risk (<50% chance) of more follow up falls for southeast SA, much of inland VIC and NSW/ACT. If the rain does eventuate, it could fall as snow above 1200m and be quite a cold rainfall for the region. The other element to watch will be the upper trough over northern areas this time next week interacting with moisture, that may still form a rain band for the tropical north moving into the start of dry season. Once again, I have covered this off during the past few days and no change to the guide exists tonight, the forecast confidence will improve from possibly tomorrow night but I suspect from Monday.

The upper trough over QLD and the NT, needs watching as we move into next weekend and the following week. The rest of the nation looks to be relatively quiet and dry following the mid week system across the weekend with improving temperatures. But the risk of severe frost under such an upper air pattern is growing for parts of NE VIC and S NSW next weekend so be weather aware growers.

Medium term looking unsettled in the east but as I have mentioned this week from about the 10-15th of May, we are looking at moisture entering WA along the northern flank of frontal weather passing through the Southern Ocean and this could spawn a cloud band and rainfall returning to the SWLD of WA and possibly through the southern inland of WA through SA.

More coming up on Sunday morning. I hope you, like me are having a good weekend. Take care.