The wet Autumn surprised many people and caused a lot of destruction and disruption to many operations, and thankfully if youn are reading this, you would have had a good lead in to the season to make the necessary preparations to counter the higher rainfall and humidity. In recent weeks, while there has been some rainfall about, the distribution has shifted to being of a Winter nature so the intensity is not as high.
Throughout Winter we are likely to see the season adopt the policy of wetter as we go, as the warmer waters around Australia, especially north and west, feeds deeper moisture in the jet stream, leading to more widespread rainfall spreading from WA, through the NT into QLD. That means the higher rainfall will likely be on and west of the divide. Under this current guidance, some areas could see below average rainfall.
Temperatures should be generally seasonal overall, we will lose the colder spell we are having now and eventually, more humid air will spread through the jet stream, leading to colder day times, but the air is more humid under the current guide with the above average rainfall.
This is thanks to the Indian Ocean Dipole tending sharply negative, this phase is already in development phase with the waters north and west of Australia supportive of this. Also the ENSO region, with the weakening La Niña, also pushing a lot of warmer water back towards the east coast as well.
Let’s take a look at the latest information
%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for Winter 2022
The northern tropics are forecast to remain more humid and unsettled with the elevated SSTs throughout the season. Also watching the propensity for deep moisture to be drawn over the state from the tropical waters north of the nation. This is where we could see larger cloud bands form with patchy rainfall about. It will be a case of getting wetter as we go through the season in this region and more likely to feel the impacts from Spring 2022.
The above average rainfall bias is connected to the Indian Ocean Dipole, and we have seen that already have an impact with the cloud bands overhead in the past few weeks and further cloud bands forecast to emerge via the jet stream. These could increase in coverage from July into August and then into Springtime, so wetter as we go is fair. Coastal areas leaning towards seasonal expectations as we move towards the driest time of year for much of the state.
%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for Winter 2022
The elevated temperatures over the northern parts of the state are expected to be connected to the increased SSTs around the state. This is forecast to be in place for the majority of the period with that warmer bias developing further south as we move through towards Spring 2022.
Seasonal temperatures are forecast to be in place for much of the state but watch that cooler bias that is moving through the Central parts of the country which are connected to the developing and strengthening Indian Ocean Dipole. The warmer bias is likely sitting further north.
More details can be found in the video.
More details on these can be found in the video
Sea Surface Temperatures and areas to watch.
Where the ENSO forecast was to go for the first half of 2022 - we know this did not verify.
Where the ENSO region is forecast to go for the remainder of 2022.
Make sure you cross check this information with the short- and medium-term data and forecast analysis here daily to put into context the information you see here. Understand the further you go out the less accurate the weather forecasts get, hence why the forecasts are broad here. I will have a look at Spring 2022 later this month and a preview for Summer 2022/23 as well.