The rainfall has been stubborn to leave the coastal fringe in the past few days with lingering falls above the average for some areas of the Wide Bay and Burnett and through to SEQ. The showers are likely to decrease tonight before contracting north to the tropics on Monday.

Most elsewhere across the inland have enjoyed pleasant conditions and sunny skies this weekend and that should continue into Monday with fair weather thanks to high pressure in the region.

Along the coast north of Bundaberg, the showery weather should become more frequent from tomorrow night through Tuesday as the winds turn more easterly, that is as high pressure pushes into the Tasman Sea. The weak trough that has been lingering this weekend providing the showers and thunderstorms could be pushed west into the state again, thanks to the easterly flow, where it may become the focus for the next rainfall event to emerge.

Showers are forecast to increase further on Wednesday through to Friday with moderate to heavy falls possible. The trough across the inland is also forecast to deepen as it stalls out over the Warrego and Central West. This is where we should see showers turn to areas of rain with some thunderstorms possible. A severe weather risk is low right now but not 0 and it should be noted that the rainfall could lead to renewed flood potential in the southern and central portions of QLD. But models struggle on the placement of this feature so expect changes.

Out west, the rainfall is expected to be much lighter, however if we see the moisture from the WA rainfall event shear east rather than southeast, then this could see rainfall totals increase once again for the Channel Country and through to the Downs once again, possibly merging with the inland trough leading to more widespread rainfall.

Everything should start to clear from west to east during the coming weekend as high pressure moves into the south of the country. The jet stream will still be running moisture through the nation from west to east, so there could be cloudy periods at times denoting the moisture, but there is not a lifting mechanism identified to see further rainfall emerge.

The next major system looks to impact SWLD of WA later in the run and that could be a doozy of a system, with a large cloud band forming on the front which should traverse the nation.

Let's take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall has started to ease for some coastal areas with the bulk of the heaviest rainfall now found up over the tropical north and pockets of Central Coastal QLD. Some areas could still see the odd moderate to heavy fall, but they will be isolated. Across the inland mostly dry weather expected through to mid to late week. The weather over the coast should become wetter once again as we see another period of easterly winds return thanks to a high sitting over the Tasman and a trough linking into the moisture. Areas of rain may develop as a result with widespread falls expected from the NSW border all the way up to about Cooktown but how heavy remains to be seen with models all over the shop on this system now. Storms would return under this guidance to Cape York. Inland, the placement of the trough as it journeys westwards thanks to the easterly winds, is expected to denote how far west the rainfall comes. The rainfall could be locally heavy at times with thunderstorms, but these look more isolated now for central and eastern areas. Watching closely the impacts of rainfall over in the west of the country too as that could come into the Channel Country and then merge with the trough over the inland before all of that sweeps eastwards into the medium term. If that happens, then rainfall could become heavier for inland communities and about the coast south of Mackay to end the month.

The tropics are set to see reasonably rainfall, but within seasonal expectations as we move through the period with onshore winds providing the heaviest rainfall to the eastern facing coastal ranges and communities. Drier weather now expected for northwest, west and southwest QLD with ridging and dry air for now, but watching that moisture over the interior building up later this week.

Rainfall very tricky to pin down here, we could see rainfall drop from a line east of Winton through Thargomindah down to Cobar. But how heavy the rainfall is remains to be seen. There will be a coastal bias to the rainfall through this time, and isolated showers and thunderstorm are forecast through this time for points on and west of the divide.

Medium Term - May 22nd-29th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Northwest cloud bands look to continue over the nation with moderate rainfall extending underneath the cloud band. The moisture may merge with moisture from easterly winds in a warm airmass leading to widespread rainfall above the average once again a decent chance over parts of eastern QLD and through NSW. The SWLD with persistent onshore winds and frontal weather moving through bringing bursts of showers and colder conditions. Generally seasonal rainfall is forecast over southern parts of the nation with light to moderate rainfall.

Temperature Anomalies

A warmer phase looks to be in place over much of the nation with a broad area of high pressure in the east directing warmer than normal weather from northwest Australia into central and eastern areas of the country. Higher humidity values over the nation will support warmer nights as well. The cooler bias looks to continue over western parts of the nation with thicker cloud and the chance of further influence from the Indian Ocean. But the position of the high-pressure system over the southwest of the nation will continue to pump in onshore winds.

DATA - Refer to the video at the top of the page for further details on all this data below and to place it into context.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The high-pressure system that is set to develop is forecast to become the dominant force for much of the nation leading to a drier eastern and southern inland. The wettest weather will be found on the periphery of this large scale high with rain forecast to be above average over in the west of the nation with a few events on the board as mentioned and the possibility of another event developing over Central and SE QLD, chiefly near the coast with moderate to heavy falls. Elsewhere, it is looking much drier through this week which may start to shift in around a week. A strong cold front moving through WA during the early part of next week could bring a band of rain into the Bight mainly south of the mainland. Medium term shows more moisture feeding across the nation and further rainfall chances in the eastern inland of the country. This is fairly typical for this time of year as the high-pressure systems move northwards to their Wintertime location.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture that is feeding across the nation from northwest to southeast via the jet stream is forecast to lift northwards early this week with dry air undercutting this very anomalous moisture spread that has driven the high rainfall across the country. High pressure is forecast to dominate the synoptic elsewhere and trap the drier and cooler air that comes in from Tuesday onwards with frosty nights and fine days for the east. But all the action with the higher moisture levels will be found in the west with a large-scale system moving in from Tuesday through Thursday and yet again later in the weekend into next week. Another burst of moisture is forecast to be drawn into a trough over QLD with the better rainfall along the central and southeast coasts for now, this then spreading to the NSW coast with moderate falls developing later this week. In the medium term, the moisture should begin to spread throughout the nation with better rainfall chances moving into southern Australia towards the end of the month.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysi

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - western areas dry for now but the placement of the trough from the weekend into next week key to how much rain makes it through inland areas. Coast is looking wet, working through the second peak of the positive SAM and that will take place through the short term with drier weather into the medium term possible if a low forms south of the region. But we shall see.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall, where we have some interesting signals in the medium term to consider, but the broader modelling will help answer a few of my questions and hopefully some of yours as well.

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