The weather has been very active in recent times with some locations recording 20-30 year rainfall highs for April, a few locations recording record rainfall in short records, overall it has been very wet for the west and northwest which has been welcome for many.

Now the airmass aloft is still very much humid and unstable and we will see the showers and thunderstorms continuing in random and scattered pockets through the coming days, the coverage becoming more widespread ahead of a trough during the weekend, as that system passes into NSW.

Severe storms are possible this weekend with heavy rainfall and damaging winds the main concerns for southwest and southern parts of QLD.

The weather contracts east as ridging takes hold during Sunday so drier weather forecast for much of the west from Sunday but the east is where the moisture should hang up and combine with the remains of the trough over SEQ during early next week. Widespread showers along the coast with moderate falls and scattered afternoon showers and storms inland are possible and could stick around through much of next week.

There is some chance that the trough and unsettled weather could be drawn further west to the Warrego but at this time the best rainfall is forecast further east of about Charleville.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be scattered and moderate to heavy where storms occur in the coming days, and that will be in a broad band from the Gulf through western districts into the central and southern portions of the state. This whole mass of humid and unsettled weather will get a kick along to the east thanks to a trough pushing through NSW on Saturday. This is where we could see a more orgnaised batch of rainfall over the southern districts before contracting into SEQ on Sunday and into next week. The rainfall over the SEQ region could be moderate next week and that may extend to the Wide Bay and Burnett and Central Coast thanks to a northeast flow feeding a trough. Storms inland could bring a few showers and thunderstorms with uneven distribution of rainfall likely to occur with these into next week. Overall the pattern is forecast to be fairly dynamic and there is some chance of the numbers changing dramatically over the state next week so the low confidence forecast strap is applied to the forecast from early next week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

A band of unstable air and humid conditions will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms extending from the northern tropics south and southeast through western areas into the southwest and through to NSW. Storms could be gusty at times with moderate to heavy rainfall but severe weather is unlikely at this time.

MEDIUM TERM - May 5th- 12th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The rainfall bias has shifted to the east in recent broader guidance, given that we are seeing more drier and cooler air sweep the country. I am suggesting rainfall will be more aggressive over northern and eastern areas of the nation with the SAM tending back positive and with the lingering moisture courtesy of the lingering La Nina, the potential for a rainband to form in the north and east is quite likely. The west and remainder of the south seeing seasonal rainfall expectations. But the door is open for moisture to sweep south and southwest into these areas as well so watch closely.

Temperature Anomalies

A much colder signal has been triggered on the models with all in agreement we could see some quite fresh air being transported behind a strong cold front mid next week leading to the first chance of snowfalls on the mainland and the chance of frost for southern Ag areas of the nation so growers beware. The only thing offsetting the risk of severe frosts is that the SSTs around the nation are above normal and we do have a positive SAM phase unfolding in the east so while watching trends closely, there may be the chance some frost issues we could be talking about in around a week's time for the medium term.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The pattern remains largely unchanged for the nation as we track the next major weather maker into the southeast and east this weekend. That could produce severe weather as outlined in the video. The trough may linger over eastern areas of the nation and combine with moisture in the onshore winds to see more rain develop for eastern QLD and NSW. The northern tropics are forecast to be unsettled and more humid than normal with the risk of showers and thunderstorms developing most afternoons. Over southern parts of WA, the next front comes through tomorrow but the next major front is forecast on Monday night through Tuesday bringing that colder shift to the southwest with drier air. The front and trough then run across the southern parts of the country with the chance of widespread showers and gusty winds coming into SA mid next week and then over the southeast and eastern parts of the country. This system could form into a major low pressure system over southern and southeast/east areas of the country but the forecast confidence is low. Also watching the moisture in the tropics into the medium term which could turn south and southeast through the nation lifting rainfall chances once again through the medium term with higher humidity also spreading south and east. The weather supportive of below average day time temperatures for the west, warmer over the north.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture remains deep and elevated over the east hence the cold rain today for many and really the cold rainy weather since about Saturday. The first system is weakening but leaves a trail of moisture behind it, laying in wait for the next system to slam into it on Friday leading to more widespread rainfall. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible as is some flooding for parts of the southeast if widespread heavy rainfall eventuates. The drier southerly flow will move through southern parts of the nation but struggle to push further north. The northern tropics and much of the east will remain in humid air through much of the outlook with onshore winds via the new high ridging through southern areas, and the deeper northeast flow still bringing in above average moisture values over tropical areas. Watching the Indian Ocean into the medium term as outlined today, this could lead to more robust rainfall developing through the medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - this forecast output from the GFS will change dramatically in the coming days. Rely on the next 3 days of data probably being something worth betting on, the rest is looking low confidence.

The next update is due out at 8am EST on Thursday. Have a great evening.

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