The wild weather continues for much of the southern and central parts of the nation with a near stationary trough this evening. The trough finally gets a nudge to the east on Friday and this will take some of the severe weather risks deeper through western QLD.

Over northern areas, a monsoonal trough continues to lay across the northern interior through to the Burkedin leading to widespread rain and thunderstorms with some flooding being reported in recent days. This may continue for a few more days.

Over the tropics, the monsoonal flow continues to produce showers and squally storms with moderate to heavy falls about.

For remaining eastern areas, the weather is settled for a few more days for the most part, there is a weak trough over the southeast which may produce a thundery shower or two but it won't be until we see the trough over NSW move into the region from mid next week, that the weather turns showery and thundery with moderate to heavy falls about.

The trough may stall out and combine with onshore winds, this could lead to widespread rainfall on and east of the Great Dividing Range mainly from the Wide Bay to the NSW border.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall will remain more widespread over northern and western districts of the state where the troughs lay, the monsoon trough over the north delivering the heaviest of the rainfall in the state, but some of the thunderstorms over the far west and southwest will rival some of those tropical falls up north. That would lead to some decent flash flooding over the outback. The focus of rainfall and thunderstorm activity creeps east through the weekend and continues over the north of the state. The weather will eventually reach the east coast from early next week and become more widespread as the trough hangs up over the southeast. This could lead to more widespread showers/rain with moderate to heavy falls developing in the onshore flow. That is something to watch through the coming days with the elevated SSTs off the coast there, if that does verify, the rainfall could become rather heavy.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Broadly unstable with a monsoon trough anchored through the interior of the NT through QLD with heavy rainfall near the trough. A deep moisture profile will lead to significant risk of heavy rainfall away from thunderstorms as well. Thunderstorms are most likely during the afternoon and evening through much of the west and north, however the thunderstorms may continue at all hours over the Cape York and Gulf. Squalls to 50 knots are possible with storms over the tropical north.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Flash flooding continues to be highest risk of concern throughout large parts of the NT and QLD during Friday with the high levels of moisture and instability. The thunderstorm coverage is scattered to widespread Friday and that means rainfall is likely to widespread and heavy so the flood risk both flash and riverine is expected to remain high to very high over the west and south as well as the tropics.

DATA - Refer to the short and medium term break down in the video with further details for your part of the world. Medium term off the GFS is very low confidence

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

As per the video - not much change in the short term with the monsoon and tropical lows over the north driving the heavy rainfall. Trough slowly moving east through the southeast finally bringing the severe weather risks into the eastern inland this weekend, and clearing to southeast of the very unstable weather. The tropical low over the northwest is something to watch as well which may bring heavy flooding rainfall over the weekend. It is the medium term that offers no help to figuring out the rainfall potential nationally. The guidance is very poor and remains low confidence. More in the models and rainfall analysis this evening.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The very deep moisture profile is still with us for a number of days over much of the south but you will find that retreats slowly through the outlook period back to northern and eastern Australia as new high pressure comes in. Once again the signals from the models are for the monsoon to remain in place over northern Australia. What the GFS does with that information is to create tropical lows, which for the most part are bogus, but what that tells me is that the tropical weather is expected to be dominated by the monsoon trough. Where that moisture goes remains to be seen. So stay tuned.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z CMC- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - hit and miss storms will result in uneven distribution of rainfall across the inland but the rainfall may increase over the east coast and the monsoon will dominate the north.

A detailed look at all things rainfall and the model data tonight, people getting more itchy about the seeding season ahead, it will be here before you know it!

14 views0 comments