QLD - WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTRACTING EAST. DRIER AIR THIS WEEKEND.

The severe weather continues tonight but it is the last wave in a wild sequence of weather. The weather will turn sharply drier and cooler from the west overnight, the rain clearing from southwest to northeast through the day as the trough marches through.


Severe thunderstorms are a big concern once again for populated areas of the QLD coast during Friday. Tonight the heavy rainfall over Agricultural areas if of great concern through central and southern areas with the risk of severe flash flooding and riverine flooding developing.


By the weekend the rainfall contracts to the north and the weather essentially rain free and cloud free for much of the state as we dry out.


The next chance of rainfall develops via easterly winds mid to late next week with coastal showers, this moisture starting the cycle again of inland showers and thunderstorms.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall has cleared out of the south and central districts with drier air moving north. The trough responsible for the wild weather is now sitting over the central areas and is slowing down on it's journey north. Heavy falls are still possible along this feature but the rainfall likely to retreat into the Top End this weekend and next week

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are ongoing tonight and again tomorrow with strong to severe storms likely to emerge again with a chance of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds. This risk will move further north into Saturday.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

The flash flood risk continues tomorrow for much of the east coast. Overnight rain and storms should have cleared the inland areas with a drop in the PW values and temperatures leading to stable air.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

Damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms on and ahead of the trough is possible once again on Friday. Winds over 100km/h possible with organised clusters of thunderstorms.

DATA - Analysis can be found in the video at the top.


00z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Again focus shifts to the next round of weather after the dry cooler spell across much of the nation, the question will be, do we have repeat systems coming through the nation from a week's time?

00z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The drier air is sweeping out the tropical moisture in the coming 36hrs with conditions turning much more settled across much of the inland, but note in the medium term, the moisture cycle starts again, and continues to build up throughout the back half of the month, for those that don't want rain, this is not what you want to see.

00z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details in the video

A closer look in - the rainfall returns from the north and east from this time next week.

More details tonight from 9pm looking at the next batch of rainfall and humidity coming down the pipe for the end of the month.

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