We have the climate drivers now moving into phase to bring the wet weather back through much of the state in the coming days. The east coast north of about Yeppoon has seen showery gusty weather and below average temperatures with moderate falls as the trade winds drive in the wet weather. This will continue right throughout the period and the intensity of rainfall is expected to increase as the monsoon trough begins to form north of Australia.
For inland areas, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from Friday as a trough moves in from NSW. Some of the storms could be gusty and heavy over the weekend and again next week. Some of the falls may lead to renewed flash flooding. After a break from the flooding in recent weeks, the La Nina has not gone away and the risk of severe weather returning to inland areas in the coming weeks is high.
Coastal areas south of Mackay, showers will increase in coverage but some parts of the coast may only see light to moderate falls, stuck in between the major weather systems, but overall, the humidity will increase, the rainfall coverage is likely to increase and a reduction in temperatures can be expected.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is expected to remain over coastal areas north of Yeppoon on Friday and return to the inland of the state by Friday afternoon. A trough that will set up camp over inland areas is expected to remain slow moving and this providing the daily showers and thunderstorms along and to the east of the trough. Some moderate to heavy falls are possible in pockets of the inland. Coastal areas are likely to see more showery days ahead as the easterly winds begin to freshen and another trough emerges near the NSW border. So there could be enhanced rainfall with that. Later next week, a tropical low that is forecast to form in the Coral Sea and battle wind shear (thus keeping it below cyclone strength) will drift west and enhance rainfall for areas along the coast. The region most of risk from heavy rainfall leading to heavy rainfall with this feature is between Townsville and Yeppoon. The moisture from this system is anticipated to move inland over Central QLD, especially if it moves southwest.
Thunderstorm Forecast Friday
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in spread through the state on Friday, with some of the storms turning strong, but the severe weather for now staying in NSW. But the risk of severe weather is not 0% so be weather aware. Thunderstorms may emerge in the shower activity along the sub tropical and tropical QLD coast with moderate to heavy falls developing with these showery streams. Storms will also return to the Cape York Peninsula during the afternoon.
DATA - Refer to video for further analysis and comparison in the model data
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks
No change to the guidance from the short term but I will focus on the medium term, looking at the tropical weather now throwing some interesting solutions onto the table, these will chop and change so do not be seduced by them yet, but be aware that the tropics will be influencing rainfall late February into early March. East coast of NSW and QLD looking wet with onshore winds and showery periods with the positive SAM. That signal is increasing now on most modelling. There will be tropical moisture coming southbound in the medium term but where that occurs remains to be seen but be aware there are severe weather events now starting to appear on the charts and more details on that can be found in the video.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks
The biggest shift from this morning is the moisture spreading from north to south in the modelling, now the location of this will chop and change. But it highlights the influence of the MJO being in phase in conjunction with the positive SAM. This opens the gates for moisture to pool and remain stagnant over the nation in the absence of cold fronts to sweep the moisture out. We saw the impacts of that in January and that was quite disruptive and damaging to many inland areas. So it is important to be weather aware. Exceptional moisture content is appearing on some of the charts but caution is advised on anything more than broad analysis, it is too difficult to be specific right now but the potential is there for some nasty weather events for parts of the nation.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to video for further analysis
00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to video for further analysis
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - 2 Weeks
Refer to video for further analysis and your fly around.
A closer look in - as mentioned this will continue to chop and change and the placement of any wild card tropical systems will result in a narrow band of heavy rainfall coming through interior parts and spreading the rainfall into the east. Also note the SAM over the eastern areas.
I will have a look at the modelling and all things rainfall tonight after 9pm EDT as we are starting to see values come up and more analysis coming up from 8am EDT Friday.