QLD - WARMING UP THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT A COLDER POP SPREADING NORTH NEXT WEEK.

Over the north however, humidity values are starting to creep up and be maintained with a persistent easterly (trade winds) and the influence of the higher SSTs throughout the Coral Sea.


Over the remainder of the northern and central inland of the nation, I suspect the weather is unchanged for another 7 days at least.


In the south, there has been some rumblings of a low developing over the northeast of NSW, this clipping the southern and southeast areas of QLD, with areas of rain skirting the region.


The weather is expected to turn colder early in the week with the southerly flow developing next week in the wake of a long wave over the southeast.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The rainfall is limited to coastal areas over the north and along the east coast. An upper trough may increase the spread of showers and a few storms later this weekend into early next week, that wave moving westwards into the Gulf Of Carpentaria. The weather largely dry for the inland areas for now, though keeping an eye on that increase of moisture throughout the nation with a trough also working it's way in from SA and the southern NT later next week.

DATA


00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Well the pattern over the coming days is fixed, fine and settled weather right through to the weekend over the south and east, the west sees rain tonight and tomorrow clearing through Friday in time for the weekend. Over the weekend it now appears that the cold front coming through, likely to move through without a low forming on the front, as expected, the twists and turns continue for the eastern coastline, but once again expect more changes in the coming days surrounding this. Rule of thumb the most active weather from Sunday over the southeast and the east coast from Monday through Tuesday. The lack of a low pressure system may open the door for another system to pass through from WA into SA and the potential for this to tap into moisture and see rainfall chances come up for the southern and southeast inland later next week if not the weekend. The north, tending humid with showers and the odd thunderstorm about as the build up progresses.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Dry for the week over inland areas of QLD with all the weather expected further south. Along the coast, onshore winds will drive showers, some of those turning thundery over the Cape York region with moderate falls, otherwise we wait patiently to see whether moisture over SA and the NT spreads eastwards and if a trough will start to form in the hotter weather developing next week, feeding off moisture in the easterly wind profile.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

Dry air continues to dominate the atmosphere over the nation, hence the lack of cloud cover at the moment. The moisture will be reintroduced into areas of the south with a weak system passing through Tasmania. Another shot of moisture will come across northern Australia via the easterly winds with that increasing the heat values. The humidity will then spread south and southeast via upper level winds with a trough helping to lift that into showers and thunderstorms over inland areas at the very end of the period.

I will have an update on the models once again at 9pm, looking at the all important rainfall data for the short and medium term.

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