After beneficial early season rainfall for the northern parts of the nation, a drier picture is coming through most of the state with a ridge building in over the north and a warm to hot northwest flow developing. This flow pattern will continue ahead of a boundary moving north, which will produce widespread showers and possibly a few storms this weekend into next week.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
The rainfall has largely cleared for most areas, a few rogue showers and storms over the north of the state towards the NT with afternoon heating should simmer down and be patchy. Then we are watching that rain band lifting north through the southeast. Does it behave as per the GFS and bring widespread rainfall through the region or does it follow the Euro and only bring light falls and a colder drier southerly flow? This question will remain unanswered for a number of days but pay attention to the forecasts and READ the forecast notes as it will help you understand what confidence underpins these charts!
00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The pattern is unchanged from this morning and diverges with the GFS run tonight still so they are split with how the system evolves over the east and that impacts rainfall and temperature forecasts from run to run. The modelling will continue to be divergent for probably another day for the east in how the rainfall event evolves. For the remainder of the nation, there is good agreement of a large high taking full control and bringing colder southwest winds into next week for much of the nation. Then the west warms up ahead of another cold front mid to late next week. The east may get into showery air, dependent on the easterly wind regime and whether it becomes unstable which again, there is no clear guidance on this evolving.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall contained to the major rainfall event sweeping through from Friday through the early part of next week before skies clear over the inland from south to north over the inland. Showers may persist over the north coast into mid next week with a low forming offshore but more model rendering needed with this. Otherwise the majority of the outlook beyond the weekend is dry and settled.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days
Dry air has been booted out of the interior and north today and this has lead to areas of afternoon convection with a few showers over the Gulf Of Carpentaria in response. That moisture is surging southwest tomorrow into the approaching long wave. The long wave itself introducing some modest moisture but it is mainly in the upper atmosphere. That will merge with the deeper moisture coming in from the north and the rainfall looks to increase over the southeast and eastern states, bypassing much of SA this time. Dry air surges behind the front and looks to be held over much of the nation next week under high pressure. Moisture may remain elevated about the east coast in onshore winds but forecast confidence remains low.
Finally I made these forecast observations last week in the lead up to this pattern shift back to rainfall potential about the areas on notice about moisture intrusion. I update this site frequently, and to make YOUR subscription sing, it is imperative YOU read the forecasts, watch the videos and explainers to get the best information. Looking at a chart or model data with no interpretation is not how weather works and will only cause disappointment.
Analysis of the models last Wednesday. Note where the moisture was forecast to be and where it has ended up today!
Now while this applies to the southeast of the nation in this example, we are moving into severe weather season and I encourage you to check back at least daily to pick up the details. There will be more video blogs etc moving forward so less reading which may be more useful.
Another solution and analysis over a week ago - this was last Monday
Another solution which has been closer to the truth! This was last Tuesday!
So it pays to read and to keep across the details.
I will have a model wrap tonight regarding rainfall after 9pm.