The dry airmass keeping skies in place are expected to stay with us for the next week or so over inland areas, as another round of cold dry southerly winds work north, dropping the day time temperatures.
Moisture looks to return to the north and west of the nation in about 1 week, opening the door to lift rainfall chances for inland areas as we track into the second half of the month.
Rainfall next 10 days
Rainfall is limited to coastal areas in onshore winds, with light falls at best for southern areas as winds veer into the southeast and east during next week. The better falls are expected further north over Cape York, this thanks to an upper trough combining with trade winds. Then we wait and see what happens with the moisture over the north and west of the nation and whether that can be projected across the nation.
00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The pressure pattern unchanged in the short term with a high moving east this weekend making room for a cold front and blast of colder air to move through the southeast, this being projected across the eastern half of the nation bringing a spell of below average temperatures through to southern QLD. Showers over the southeast states will contract to the NSW coast next week, dry weather resumes for much of the south and continues for most inland areas. A trough and low over WA, born out of the high heat (first one this season) will move towards SA and the Bight later next week bringing very warm weather across the nation and the potential for rainfall to develop next weekend from WA through SA and into the eastern states, but as you can see above, the weather downstream may interrupt the impact of the rainfall spreading throughout the south and east so this will form the focus of the short and medium term forecasts coming up.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall is limited to coastal areas still with the bulk of the rainfall coastal with onshore winds. High pressure over inland areas will maintain control for the coming 7 days while fronts and troughs develop on the periphery of the large scale ridging. The next major system to watch is the low and heat trough forming over WA that will come south into SA and the Bight later next week with an impulse of moisture from the Indian Ocean which could see rainfall develop. But otherwise inland areas have to wait another 7 days at least to see a pattern flip and air mass change. The bulk of the rainfall will be up over the north and along the coast in the coming week and maybe a brief shower or storm later Sunday into Monday inland on the colder shift.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days
The airmass change will take a week as mentioned, with the drier air reinforced this weekend thanks to the strong cold front over the southeast, propelling the moisture north and northwest, and knocking out the moisture coming through QLD back out to sea. The moisture then redevelops over the northwest of the nation next week thanks to a trough approaching WA drawing in moisture from the north. Trade winds will also return later next week and propel moisture over the northern tropics. This too eventually being drawn south in favourable upper level winds.
I will have more on the full suite of models and rainfall, especially a look at next week which does pose a lot of interest for areas for eastern Australia with moisture surging south and east overriding the drier air.