QLD - WARM TO HOT FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE INLAND. RAINFALL CREEPING IN MONDAY

A very warm Friday and weekend is coming up for inland areas which has been well modelled in recent days, a warm broad northwest flow likely to be with us for a number of days as cold fronts pass through the southeast states, drawing in the desert air to the east.


Temperature anomalies for Sunday show values up to 9C above normal for the period Sunday into Monday.

The weather is expected to be mostly sunny for the southern and central inland.


Over the north, an impulse of moisture from the easterly trades is likely to lead to an increase of showers for the east coast, moderate falls also possible about the FNQ coast exposed to the southeast winds. The humid air, rushing through Cape York and pushing through the NT. A taste of the build up likely early next week with the moisture pooling over the north.

Across the south, on Monday there will be a large band of rainfall pass over the southeast with a developing low pressure system along the front moving slowly east over NSW. The northern flank of the front is expected to creep over the northern border of NSW into southern QLD with patchy rainfall possible. Will keep an eye on the trends for now.


The weather is expected to turn sharply colder still early in the week with the moisture being blasted out by the dry airmass - that will lead to clear conditions for yet another week for the eastern inland at this time.

A low pressure system is now more likely to form as I said along the front further south and move slowly, blocking up the flow of high pressure to our east, so dry weather is a fair forecast for now


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pattern still evolving in the short term, a thundery change over WA bringing moderate rainfall today expected to move east, with the system due in southern SA tomorrow now likely to only bring very light rainfall to the southern inland, more cloud cover than anything else for NSW, the better chance of rainfall for coastal areas of SA and VIC. Now the latest update is increasing the risk of a stronger front passing over the southeast states Sunday with rain increasing later on Sunday into Monday. The falls could be moderate over eastern VIC and through much of inland NSW with moderate snowfalls for Alpine areas, possibly running up the GDR. A sharp colder shift is expected to sweep the eastern states next week after a warm weekend. Then we see a low form offshore NSW with the system remaining slow moving offshore for much of next week, holding up the weather pattern meaning a benign week is possible next week. Out west, another front may be knocking on the door by this time next week with another band of rainfall, that system will eventually sweep the southern states introducing the next chance of rainfall. But the timing and scale is determined by that block in the Tasman if the low becomes slow moving. The north will have waves of humidity moving east to west through the period with the chance of showers from time to time.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

Rainfall is increasing for the system Sunday through Monday for the southeast states, that clearly is the main event in the coming 5 days. That is following rainfall over the southwest of the nation today that brought some reasonable falls. The wet weather will be accompanied by cold air so some of the precipitation likely to be snowfalls. The weather will tend to clear from Tuesday next week with the chance of showers developing for coastal areas if the low is close enough to the coast. The weather drying out over much of the inland of the nation thanks to a southerly flow and high pressure so will have to watch how the low develops in the Tasman and the watch the next cold front approaching the west coast of the nation this time next week. The tropics could see an increase in showers at times during the two weeks.

00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

The PW anomalies ahead of the system tomorrow and through the eastern inland on Sunday will see rainfall chances coming up during Sunday through Monday in particular, and the anticipated shift to drier southerly winds will clear the moisture right out of the nation. The drier air takes over much of the nation next week before the next surge of moisture passes through WA from the northwest with a cold front. And the tropics may see moisture surge back in with the trade winds. That may propel moisture across the north and west of the nation through the end of the month then shifting southeast ahead of the frontal weather in the medium term.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The weakening front from WA which has triggered the showers and storms over the southwest today is expected to move east with patchy rain for SA, VIC and extreme southern NSW. Heavier rainfall expected over western TAS with topographic rainfall. The weather remains mild as it clears this weekend throughout the south, the moisture hanging back inactive over inland areas of the nation with cloudy skies, but the majority of the nation dry. The next system starts to move into the southeast states bringing a band of rain through VIC and NSW with showers for SA, the heavier rainfall is expected back over the eastern inland west of the divide. The Euro in step with GFS now forming the low over southeast NSW then placing it offshore and keeping it stationary next week blocking the frontal weather coming out of WA. That means the weather over WA could turn wet and windy once again this time next week with a string of below average days of temperatures while the east remains settled under high pressure. The tropics will see showers early this week with an impulse of moisture passing over the northern tropics from east to west.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall most widespread over the southwest of the nation tonight with the front passing eastwards. Then the rainfall becomes more scattered over SA, through VIC then into southern NSW with the front sliding southeast pulling moisture through from northwest to southeast on the northern flank. Patchy rainfall of 1-2mm at best. The largest rain event this week will be over VIC and NSW during Monday with the cold front linking up with moisture and turning that all into a low pressure system as it passes east. The system sending a shot of dry air through the eastern and northern inland and high pressure then suppressing rainfall chances. The west will see rainfall return from mid next week with the next set of fronts.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The PW anomalies are increasing ahead of the system coming in on Sunday and now we are seeing better agreement on the rainfall coverage for the Sunday to Tuesday. Then a shot of dry air is propelled through the eastern inland on the western face of the low pressure that is rotating offshore the east coast of NSW. That will see rainfall chances rapidly decline next week. Out west the moisture returns with frontal weather approaching with windy colder showery weather developing. After an early taste of build up conditions, the weather will dry out over northern Australia thanks to the cold outbreak.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Increasing signals for rainfall to creep in from NSW with a front passing through on Monday. The colder air rushing into the eastern inland combining with the warm humid air and a rain band with a few storms passing over NSW coming into southern and southeast QLD with mainly light falls, but a few areas could scrape 8-15mm at this time. The weather is expected to clear over the inland as winds veer into the south thanks to a low that forms offshore NSW. That brings a much colder airmass. The tropics will see some showers early in the week with an impulse of moisture and then another nice dry surge passing through. More moisture may build up towards the end of the month with rainfall chances increasing.

I will have another climate update for spring from lunchtime tomorrow and your forecast from 7am.






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