It is looking like a nice spring like weekend for much of the state with a dry and gusty northwest to westerly flow being helped along by a few fronts that have passed to the south during the past 24 hours.
Satellite shows fair weather cumulus about the east coast in warm sunshine and otherwise the main rain bearing cloud is well south through southern NSW and into northern VIC along a weak trough.
That warm to very warm flow will be in place this weekend. That dry airmass leading to fairly clear skies Saturday but, the moisture in the lower levels will start to increase by Sunday so more cloud is likely to break out in the warm airmass.
Well above average temperatures this weekend ahead of a strong cold front sweeping the southeast, bringing some locations up to 9C above normal.
A strong cold front is anticipated to move through the region come Sunday afternoon and this will lead to a colder surge moving throughout the eastern inland with a band of rainfall in VIC and NSW, the northern most flank of this may creep over the border and bring areas of light rainfall into southern QLD during Tuesday morning before the colder drier air surges north.
Temperatures set to drop sharply with a southerly wind shift as a low winds up off the east coast of NSW sending drier air throughout, and that surge of dry air reaching the NT Tuesday bringing perhaps one of the final dry season spells.
Fine weather set to return to the inland for most of the week however more moisture is expected to develop over northern Australia following the dry surge leading to more humid air and a few showers for the coastal areas.
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
Dry and warm weather for most of the eastern inland this afternoon but some patchy rainfall has been observed through SA and VIC today. The patchy rainfall along the cold front sliding southeast is being left behind in the jet stream moisture that surged in from the northwest Indian Ocean, that is expected to continue to remain over SA and through parts of western NSW and northern VIC this weekend. That will hang back waiting for the stronger cold front to pass through during the early part of next week leading to areas of rain and colder weather breaking out across the southeast and eastern inland. Now beyond the front rolling through, the models are not quite in sync, where GFS moves the low off quicker and forms it offshore, while the Euro continues to form the system over the land but slows the system down bringing more rainfall to the region. Most other global modelling supports the Euro solution. Beyond that a trough may hang back over the eastern inland driving scattered showers through NSW and parts of southern QLD with cold air aloft. The weather then turning drier over SA through much of the eastern inland during later next week into the weekend ahead of frontal weather which will bring rainfall back to WA from mid next week and that activity will slowly move across during the latter part of the month.
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
Rainfall will be patchy and light through the coming 24 hours as a weak trough passes through southeastern Australia, otherwise most of the nation is dry, apart from FNQ and the SWLD. Then the major rainfall event will dominate the proceedings during Sunday through Tuesday with the most widespread falls through southeast Australia particularly over VIC and NSW. A low pressure system will likely bring further rainfall to southeast VIC and southern NSW with moderate falls possible if the low is close enough to the coast. The rainfall then contracts east followed by well below average temperatures. That drier air will remove rainfall chances for much of SA, inland VIC and NSW through QLD. The dry surge will reach the NT and WA next week with the chance of a few showers along the dry surge. Then frontal weather will come back to the west mid next week and that will then run across the south of the nation with the low moving off the east coast by mid next week.
00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
Dry air is surging through the west of the nation following the cold fronts that have passed through, but over in the east, the moisture is deepening as a trough and cold front begin to move towards the northeast during the coming 48hrs. That front will link up with moisture and draw further moisture in over northern and eastern Australia leading to a large rain band with moderate falls for VIC, NSW and southern QLD. Then the low that forms on the front, will send a shot of dry cold southerly air through eastern and central inland areas of Australia. That will settle conditions down for the nation mid next week. The next surge of moisture is expected to approach from the west along cold fronts that are poised to be the focus of the next batch of rainfall. The wild card this week coming, the moisture over the east may combine with a trough over the NSW ranges could lead to showers continuing into mid week.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The surface pattern is largely unchanged for the next 4 days with the moisture hanging around for that large scale rainfall event over the southeast. A burst of cold air will surge north through the nation during Tuesday flushing the moisture out and leading to drier weather for inland areas. For the southeast of NSW and VIC there may be further rain with moderate falls thanks to southerly winds wrapping around the low pressure system that deepens offshore. The west will see another wave of frontal activity during the middle of next week, some of that may drift eastwards however the forecast confidence remains low as pointed out this morning. The tropics should dry out during the middle of next week.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
The rainfall event over the southeast is the largest event on the board with moderate rainfall expected to pass through later Sunday through Tuesday. Then dry weather for inland areas, with coastal areas of NSW and eastern VIC. The rainfall may be moderate at times. The north of the nation may see a few showers about as well with tropical sultry air passing through early in the week then flushed out by the dry surge charging north. Then the rainfall focus shifts back to the west with a few a cold fronts to pass through with moderate rainfall returning.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
You can see the moisture surging into the strong front passing through the southeast during the latter part of the weekend and into next week before dry air takes over for a good part of next week and spreads throughout the nation. The next wave of moisture approaches over northwest Australia and injects more rainfall chances back to WA. Trade winds also return to QLD and this could see moisture return for the eastern seaboard. Overall there is moisture to work with in the medium term and the modelling not quite connecting it together tonight with the low pressure systems and fronts to produce rainfall. The elements are there.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
The weather expected to be very warm and dry for another 2-3 days. There is a strong cold front as has been well documented through this morning and that may bring areas of rainfall through the southern inland of the state with light falls for now. But there could be a few decent falls about the Stanthorpe region. Then we see showers running along the coast in southerly winds. Up north, a few showers over the tropics will be associated with a moisture plume passing from east to west. The air will dry out over the NT but the humidity may be dammed over parts of Cape York.
I will have more details on the strong cold front passing through the southeast during the latter part of the weekend.