QLD - WARM TO HOT AHEAD OF SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

Perhaps some rainfall for the southern parts of the state too as a front passes through the southeast districts. The northern most part of that system passing over the southern inland of QLD.


Satellite shows the moisture over the inland developing and spreading east with the cloud cover increasing this evening. There may be some showers and a thunderstorms along the border with NSW later tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible about the southern areas tonight but more likely to develop over the NSW side of the border with a weak middle level trough.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

The thunderstorm chances increase later Monday if not overnight into Tuesday for the region as the cold air with a strong front rides north from NSW. This will add dynamic forcing into the mix and lift the moisture over the region into scattered storms. Strong and gusty winds are possible overnight into Tuesday with the system ahead of the colder surge that develops into Tuesday.

Rainfall expected to be mainly light but there could be a few falls over 10mm for southern areas bordering NSW mainly east of Goondiwindi.

Showers over the northern parts of the QLD coast will continue Monday but ease mid week before returning later in the week into the weekend as the trade winds pick up once again. This may reintroduce moisture throughout the eastern inland of the nation as we see a northeast to northerly flow develop over the east.


There are some further troughs and fronts moving through the nation from later next week into the weekend with the chance of rainfall building for inland areas.

Lets have a look and see what is the latest.

00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pressure pattern clearly dominated by the dramatic weather event over the southeast and eastern parts of the nation as a cold front passes through. The remainder of the nation is relatively quiet with moisture over the north the only other area of precipitation. Colder air following the front and as a low forms will be felt right across the nation as the southerly winds surge north. The low pressure system offshore NSW is expected to move east, opening the door for frontal weather from WA that brings showers mid week, to spread moisture through the nation. The wettest part of the nation during the second half of the week will be over WA. Then that rainfall will begin to move over SA and then the southeast inland by next weekend. The beginning of the temperature rollercoaster has begun and we will start to see the larger fluctuations in temperature nation wide as we go through this period. Medium term there are hallmarks as I pointed out above, of that rainfall increasing for southern and eastern Australia, the ingredients are there, but can they again come together?

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

Rainfall largely confined to this major rainfall event over the southeast of the nation during the coming 3 days and then things will start to ease. The next wave of rainfall then develops for the west with a few cold fronts on approach. The rainfall moderate at times there with a colder shift to southwest winds. That weather will make a pass over SA and then over the southeast during this time next week, some chance there could be more widespread rainfall if the moisture can be drawn in via easterly winds to be lifted into an organised batch of rain.

00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

The moisture that is associated with this rain event was derived from the Indian Ocean and got held back over the inland of SA this weekend and now is expected to be drawn south, lifted up and utilised by the lifting mechanism, the cold front, over the east. This is what we need to see in future systems to see widespread rainfall develop. The next chance of this occurring is later in the week over WA and that spreads through the nation and brings more widespread chances of rainfall for the eastern and southeast inland so will be watching that. The moisture over the north should be cleared out from mid this week by a southeast to southerly wind surge. The far north should see the moisture remain in place and this may be drawn south through QLD, another area to watch as we end the month into early September.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The major rainfall event for the period is clearly the system coming through the east. The rest of the nation is quiet for the coming few days. The pattern then flips when the low pressure system moves off to the east over NZ and this will now see the weather develop over the west of the nation with the next set of cold fronts. Those cold fronts will bring moderate rainfall mid to late week and these could move towards SA and the southeast states from next weekend with further rainfall. The temperature roller coaster ride will continue throughout this period for the south and east, and over the north the weather will turn hotter once again and the humidity values will creep up.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall again heaviest and most widespread through the east and south and this will lead to some areas recording 1-2 month's worth of rainfall. The weather drying out over the nation's inland and the south during mid week, the low pressure responsible moving away. The focus of rainfall returns to WA by the middle of the week and will likely stay there during next weekend with a front every 36hrs. Some of those fronts are expected to spread through the southern states and into the southeast during next weekend with further rainfall possible but a better handle on that as we get closer and this rainfall event off the board and the low pressure system further east of the nation towards NZ. But it is good to see inland rainfall signals ticking up tonight.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The PW values are elevated over the eastern and southeast inland tonight with widespread rainfall likely to develop on and ahead of the front. The rain most widespread through NSW as the moisture runs up over terrain and deepens in response to the system strengthening into a low over eastern NSW. Then a dry surge is expected to send a cold blast of air through the nation, impacting most areas of the country throughout this week. The weather is expected to turn showery over the west with a set of cold fronts developing offshore and moving through with deeper moisture surging in from the Indian Ocean. This will be the focus of the rainfall chances for those wanting more over the southern and eastern parts of the nation.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Patchy rain and a few storms over the southern inland parts of the nation with a trough and front passing over the southeast of the nation. The moisture is sufficient for light to moderate rainfall. Then a dry southerly surge is expected to sweep through the eastern inland, flushing the heat and humidity back to the tropics. A settled week for much of the nation but then we keep an eye on moisture developing over northern Australia in the trade winds, that moisture looks to sweep south next weekend with the chance of showers becoming more widespread along the east coast. That shower activity may be heavy at times over the north of the state.

More details to come in the morning, especially surrounding the rainfall chances for the southern inland parts of the state.



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