The very high humidity and thundery weather over much of the west and north will gradually descend through the remainder of central QLD over the coming few days as a monsoon trough up north drifts south, taking a very deep moisture profile with it and linking that up with instability to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the outlook period. Some of the falls out west could be very heavy leading to areas of local flooding.

Over the east coast, onshore winds are still ongoing but with a ridge over the coast, the shower coverage widely spaced and light.

We do see the trough over inland areas becoming dislodged from the stationary position it has adopted in recent times delivering flooding to inland Australia will begin to move east and that will spread showers and thunderstorms over western and into southern inland areas over the weekend. The trough again will become stationary through the weekend into next week.

That will set up unsettled conditions over much of QLD next week with further showers and thunderstorms. Showers along the east coast will continue and could increase further into the back half of next week with a trough developing in the easterly winds. Inland areas and up through the tropics look to be the wettest areas.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to remain fairly heavy at times with thunderstorms over western and northern QLD where troughs and moisture are combining to increase the heavy rainfall threat. Severe thunderstorms are also likely about the northwest and western areas. This risk will eventually creep east and south into Central QLD this weekend. Along the coast rainfall will be mainly light and patchy but there is evidence that next week, showers are set to increase with locally heavy falls about if a trough forms in the easterly flow. For the southern inland, the scattered random storm activity will occur most days through the outlook period, with no skill in forecasting specific rainfall totals, but the guide of 25-50mm in some areas is fair. Up north, very wet through tropical areas with the monsoon trough moving northwards next week and strengthening.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

No change to the guidance across QLD with significant rainfall to occur with thunderstorms in all areas highlighted. The risk of severe weather from thunderstorms remains moderate to high as per recent days. The flash flood risk is the major concern for many regions. Thunderstorms are expected mostly afternoon and evening, but clusters of overnight storms are possible about the Gulf Country.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

Flash flooding continues to be a high risk for many locations throughout northwest and western QLD. Flash flooding from thunderstorms may cut off and inundate communities in quick time with slack movement of thunderstorms and may also cut off major roads as well for periods of time. Very high risk of flash flooding is possible about the Gulf Country.

Riverine Flood Watch This Week

A look at the tropics this week, there are already areas of flooding and riverine flooding through the areas highlighted in green and will continue to increase mainly for inland areas. Coastal areas will see periods of flash and riverine flooding, but the long duration flooding looks unlikely this week, but that may change next week with a monsoonal low moving into the Top End with the monsoon trough moving north.

DATA - Refer to video for more on the daily breakdown for the short and the medium term

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pattern in the short term largely unchanged in the short term. Severe weather over the south and east will gradually contract further east over the coming days but possibly return next week. The heavy rainfall risks leading to flooding over the inland of the nation remains in the short term. The monsoonal low over the NT may spread into WA and bring up rainfall chances for a drier WA, this would then shift rainfall chances across SA and VIC into the medium term. The east coast, keep an eye on the trough next week, we could see a significant rainfall event develop between the easterly winds and the trough that hangs up in the medium term. Heavy moisture will sit over QLD and this will lead to persistence forecasting, so not much change to what you have right now.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The very deep moisture is with much of the nation for the coming 10 days before we start to see the pattern shift. Clearly the GFS prints out the impact of what a tropical low does running through WA. That is an idea that is on the board but not well supported. The monsoon trough may snap back and offshore at the end of the run increasing the cyclone risks over the north of the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information.

A closer look in - the monsoon trough is expected to drive the heavy rainfall up north. I reckon the rainfall is below what is expected on my charts and that is thanks to thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall over the southeast could form with a trough.

More details coming up tonight with a look at the full model suite and the rainfall projections for the short, medium and long term.

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