QLD - UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND IN THE SOUTH BUT DRIER NEXT WEEK.

The weather is forecast to dry out a little more as we go through the weekend with the rainfall focus shifting along the east coast with onshore winds and the trough providing some thundery weather over inland areas moving over SEQ by Sunday. The inland can then dry out after some of the heaviest April rainfall in 50 years in some locations.


The tropical north will remain soupy and showery as well and could indeed feed the next wave of unsettled weather passing through the country's north during later next week and possibly next weekend. Some indications are that will likely be the next weather maker for the state.


That means from the weekend onwards, much of the inland of QLD could indeed be rain free while the pressure pattern reorganises.


In the short term, inland showers and storms to continue with some gusty winds over the weekend and then showery over the southeast and east of the state from next week.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is starting to wind down over inland areas now as we move through a drier period for much of the state with ridging moving in gradually over the weekend. This ridge will help to override the moisture near a trough which has been with us the past week. This trough will move to the east and along and to the east of this feature, scattered showers and a thunderstorm will be found. Now during Sunday and into early next week we could see showers increasing for parts of SEQ, some local thunderstorms could produce a few moderate falls but the coverage not sparking severe weather at this stage. The weather over the course of next week is much more benign. However watching the northern tropics with some interest and a heads up that more above average rainfall could be underway through next weekend thanks to moisture sweeping south and meeting an upper trough over the central or western areas of the state.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday.

Thunderstorms will continue to impact the northern parts of the state with the afternoon and evening convection still ongoing. Further showers and thunderstorms along the western border are possible thanks to a trough. Better wind profiles are existing further south with storms turning more organised closer tot he NSW and SA border.

MEDIUM TERM - May 6th- 13th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The rainfall bias has shifted to the east in recent broader guidance, given that we are seeing more drier and cooler air sweep the country. I am suggesting rainfall will be more aggressive over northern and eastern areas of the nation with the SAM tending back positive and with the lingering moisture courtesy of the lingering La Nina, the potential for a rainband to form in the north and east is quite likely. The west and remainder of the south seeing seasonal rainfall expectations. But the door is open for moisture to sweep south and southwest into these areas as well so watch closely.

Temperature Anomalies

A much colder signal has been triggered on the models with all in agreement we could see some quite fresh air being transported behind a strong cold front mid next week leading to the first chance of snowfalls on the mainland and the chance of frost for southern Ag areas of the nation so growers beware. The only thing offsetting the risk of severe frosts is that the SSTs around the nation are above normal and we do have a positive SAM phase unfolding in the east so while watching trends closely, there may be the chance some frost issues we could be talking about in around a week's time for the medium term.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

A fast flow pattern unfolds this weekend with the strong cold front passing through. Then drier weather will resume for much of the nation. Next weather makers to watch are the southern system coming through over the course of mid next week. GFS dropped it tonight but the broader data sets have it. The other system to watch is the inland moisture building over northern parts of the country. Will that spread southwards into the medium term and provide the next inland rainfall event? Rainfall also picking up over WA in the medium term as well which could run across the country into the middle of the month so lots happening.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture is deepening over the east again ahead of a front passing through over the coming 36hrs but then it is out the door by Sunday and normal conditions resume for much of the country. As we track into the next week, we should start to see moisture building over northern areas of the nation and this could start to drift southwards and spread through the NT and QLD. Some of the medium term models want to spread that further south while other models spread through the moisture eastwards into QLD and NSW.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - once we get the weekend system off the board I fully expect some pretty impressive rainfall events to appear on the charts, but being cautious and explaining those details is key to keeping expectations in check. So low confidence forecasting continues beyond the weekend system.

More coming up from 8am EST. Will be updating the climate picture from tomorrow too into mid June. Plus a review of the severe weather risks for this weekend as well over the east. A few days to take a breath next week which will be nice!


21 views0 comments