QLD - UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THIS WEEK.

The stormy weather is here to stay for another week, for most areas, showers and thunderstorms are expected to feature. The far southwest may sit in drier air for a while, but for the rest of us, humid, unsettled with scattered to numerous showers and storms which are a staple for much of Summer.


The weather over the state's south and southeast is where you will find the stronger storms with severe weather possible tomorrow through the end of the week, with the slow moving trough expected to take the stormy skies to the coast.


Heavy rainfall is also possible with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms featuring in the deeper moist airmass.


For tropical areas, still watching the monsoonal activity building through northern waters, will we see this descend southwards?


Let's take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to remain scattered and random with afternoon and evening showers featuring, some of these dropping 30-50mm at a time, which we have seen in recent days dotted throughout inland areas. For coastal communities, onshore winds over the northern tropical coast will see to widespread showers mainly through the morning and at night with moderate falls developing. There is no major widespread rainfall event at this time, but the humid, unsettled weather will feature and remain in place, sitting there waiting for an organised batch of low pressure to come through. This lull in the widespread rainfall may assist in the flooding receding.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms will be featuring in most districts but most concentrated over the southern inland where severe thunderstorms are possible with all modes of severe weather possible. The thunderstorms will try and work towards the coast but likely weaken as they hit the GDR.

Flash Flood Risk Tuesday

Flash flooding is expected to continue with thunderstorms, with the high levels of atmospheric moisture available. Thunderstorms are expected to be slow moving so heavy rainfall over the course of the hour may drop 30-50mm in an hour.

Damaging Winds Risk Tuesday

Damaging winds with the stronger high precipitation storms are possible during the afternoon and evening and along a trough extending from the deep heat low over the NT.

Large Hail Risk Tuesday

Large hail remains a low risk throughout Tuesday and will feature mainly over southern inland areas if at all.

DATA


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The GFS is spreading the rainfall over the nation in line with the CMC where the latest Euro has got a different idea in the short term for the east, more on that in the rainfall and model wrap after 9pm EDT. For now the most active weather rainfall wise will be found over the east and southeast this week, the west stays hot and SA, in the goldilocks zone, with seasonal weather for most of this week, hotter inland. No rainfall of note for most of western VIC, SA and southern WA. The tropics remain unstable and hot with storms, locally severe most days. The weather over the interior will be humid to start with but a drier airmass may begin to move in and this could see the heat engine over WA move southeast into SA, VIC, NSW, ACT and QLD from next week with drier weather potential which would be welcome.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

You can see the PW values are below average over the southwest and south of the nation nearer to the high pressure zone. For the north and the east, the moisture remains elevated with a deep supply thanks to onshore winds, the tropical northeasterly winds spreading moisture south through the nation, this pattern allowed to persist for most of this week, leading to the moisture building up to excessive levels. But in the areas closer to high pressure, dry and very hot weather is building and as the pattern flips, that heat will be projected across the south and east, so a break from the humidity over the south and east is quite likely, but replaced with high heat. Then as that heat develops, watch the tropical weather respond, with the humid air returning into the week leading into Christmas.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More on this coming up from 9pm EDT.

A closer look in - this will continue to change, the heavier rainfall will move around and with the divergence in modelling, it is low confidence forecasting as mentioned for the past week.

More on the rainfall and modelling after 9pm EDT - will we see a reduction in the wet signal for a period?



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