The thundery weather continues for much of the state with the usual pop up showers and thunderstorms continuing in that moist airmass currently stuck over the region, which has been with us for the past 6 weeks.
The weather is expected to turn more thundery over southern and eastern areas of the state as a trough begins to deepen over NSW and extends northwards. On and to the east of this trough is where the deep moisture will be found with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with all modes of severe weather possible.
The trough will gradually move eastwards and by the end of the week should have lifted northeast into Central QLD with some drier weather and warmer weather possible for southern districts....what a treat!!
Next week there is potential for further isolated showers and thunderstorms, but coverage of rainfall is decreasing now in the modelling as the SAM returns to neutral values for a period. This will see more sunshine across the state.
With the MJO now likely to strengthen over the Western Pacific, the overall trend of wetter weather leading into Christmas over the tropics looks to be avoided and now the continuation of build up conditions can be expected.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is anticipated to be scattered, random and heavy where it falls, leaving some areas drenched and others dry. That is the nature of the rainfall this time of year and should largely continue until the end of the week for all areas bar the far southwest and clear north to Central areas by the weekend. The showers along the coast will continue until the weekend and then clear as we see a ridge popping through the east, with a chance of a few drier days!!!
Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday
Thunderstorms are expected to remain scattered overnight through southern and central areas, before simmering down come dawn. By afternoon the showers and thunderstorms should commence and become scattered to widespread over southern areas with the chance of severe weather quite high, all modes of severe weather possible with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main threat.
Flash Flood Risk Wednesday
Heavy rainfall rates with thunderstorms a high chance for southern areas, especially about the Downs through to the Warrego through the afternoon and evening, along the trough is where you will find the highest risk.
Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday
Damaging winds with organised multicellular storms are a high chance over the same regions as today, with that spreading eastwards during the afternoon and evening towards the southeast inland. There is the slight chance of destructive winds/tornadic activity but it is deemed around 2%.
Large Hail Risk Wednesday
Large hail is a higher risk over NSW but not impossible with the stronger storms and multicellular activity that gets underway during the afternoon and evening across the southern Downs.
DATA - To cut down the reading, you can catch the latest details on the data sets in the video above
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days
Pointing out the tropical low in the Coral Sea dragging in the monsoon but away from Australia hence the drier outlook.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
More details on this coming up from 9pm EDT
A closer look in - be aware that the rainfall numbers will move around with thunderstorms, but evidence the weather is drying out for the west.
More coming up in the PM Edition of the rainfall and model wrap after 9pm EDT.