The weather has been wild over Cape York of late, but the weather is set to ease from mid week as Tropical Cyclone Tiffany moves west, but bands of showers and squally storms will remain in place for much of the west coast as a northwest flow develops.

The heavy rainfall around the Gulf will contract into the NT and this is where the guide keeps the heaviest of the rainfall related to the system for now.

For the remainder of QLD, the weather is expected to remain very humid for most areas, with weak forcing, scattered showers and storms are anticipated in the peak of the daytime heating process.

But come Friday and through the weekend, an upper trough is expected to pass through the south of the state, now this will add more dynamic support for strong to severe storms to return to the forecast. But the risk will quickly contract to the east during Sunday where the trough stalls out through next week.

The most part, the weather is expected to remain fairly seasonal for now. However, I am keeping a very close eye on the moisture streaming out of Tiffany through the NT. Will that impact QLD once again?

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall has eased in coverage for the northern tropics, but it is still heavy and gusty where it is falling with high levels of moisture still in place. The flow will tend more northwesterly over coming days, so the heavy rainfall may return to the western side of Cape York. The remainder of the state, left in a humid airmass, exhaust from the tropical feature meaning that the rainfall may thin out over the northern and central areas for a period. Scattered showers and storms most days throughout the outlook for inland areas near a trough that will oscillate west to east and back again, in relation to the high pressure moving underneath the trough. Onshore winds may bring showers to the east coast, but coverage not widespread or heavy at this time. The rainfall is likely to increase with moisture returning from the northwest courtesy of the remains of Tiffany. That may bring some northwest areas that are crying out for rainfall some hope into the forecasts.

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany.

The areas in yellow over Cape York, likely cleared of this risk by morning. The main risks move into the NT tomorrow

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms will extend from the NT, through to where TC Tiffany is expected to make landfall and southeast over the western districts and through the far south. Storms may be gusty through the afternoon and evening over the western and southwest interior. Flash flooding is a very low risk.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

Damaging and destructive winds around the cyclone over the Gulf will move west into the NT during the afternoon and evening though strong squalls along the southern Gulf are possible into Thursday

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

Flash flooding clearly connected to the tropical feature up over the western Gulf. The risk contracts into the NT later into Thursday

DATA - More information can be found in the video where I use CMC this evening.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

GFS is on drugs tonight. There is no other way of putting it. So I want you to use other agencies until it settles down. It is an outlier. The moisture from the tropics likely stays in place until next week before we see any evidence across the board of that moisture heading south and east across the country. Otherwise we have got a major flood event for the NT over the next week. Severe storm outbreak later this week into the weekend for the southeast and east and dry boring predictable weather for SA and WA. That is probably the easy part of the forecast right now. Finally, note the tropical systems into the medium term, that expresses to me that the tropics remain active for the remainder of the month, not that cyclones are hitting WA in the medium term.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Where the tropical system goes, so to does the rainfall opportunities up north. The moisture from this system will be distributed across the country but exactly where remains to be seen. But here is an example of what happens when that moisture does get drawn across the country. It is unlikely to occur but a good example non the less.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

A closer look in with CMC over the next 10 days

A broader look at the region

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

More weather coming up this evening with a look at all things models and rainfall as we eye off the tropics and see how that large flood event will impact areas further south and east.

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