QLD - THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE SOUTH AND REMAINING HOT!

The storms are back on the cards from tomorrow as a weak trough pushes into the southern inland and links up with modest moisture to see showers and thunderstorms return to forecasts in the region. The forecast thunderstorms are no where near the same scale as a week go, more your typical afternoon storm activity.


The storms are set to linger for much of the outlook period across inland areas, but the areas impacted will continue to move around, thanks to the trough also moving around from place to place.


Coverage of wet weather will return to more widespread values as the trough over inland areas deepens next week, moisture returns via the tropical north and with winds veering into the east, feeding the trough. So the wet weather will be ramping up over Christmas and the threat of severe weather returns to inland areas.


Coastal communities will become more humid, cloudy with showers increasing next week, in line with easterly winds freshening on the northern flank of a high that will be parked east of NSW.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is anticipated to return from tomorrow, but the coverage remains below average for this time of year, which is welcome for many of you. Thunderstorms tomorrow, mainly isolated on and east of a trough will bring brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds for most. A few of the storms could turn severe over the southern districts but more likely over NSW. The trough hangs up for the end of the week into the weekend, with showers and storms increasing. The thunderstorms also persist into next week, with the risk of severe storms also increasing in chance as we get closer to Christmas. Along the coast, showers are set to increase with easterly winds freshening. Overall, the pattern is adopting a more tropical feel statewide by the time we get to Christmas. No organised major rainfall events are expected between now and Christmas.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are likely to develop over the southern inland of QLD, with the coverage of storms becoming scattered during the afternoon and evening. Some could turn severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, but most areas should escape this risk. Thunderstorms are back on the cards for the Gulf Country and Northwest with some of these storms possibly gusty.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

A low end threat of storms producing gusty winds about the southern inland during the afternoon and evening.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

A low end threat of flash flooding with the odd heavy storm over the southern inland, but this is most likely to occur in NSW where the upper dynamics are more supportive of this.

DATA - More details in the video above.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More on the day by day breakdown in the video. This is the least likely outcome out of the modelling this evening, but point to it as to highlight the volatility in the modelling and how quickly it can change and I will keep on the GFS to show you this in the coming days.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

I am showing you this as a point of reference to the least likely outcome with the drier air persisting, which I do not support. I will have more details on the moisture and rainfall coming up from 9pm EDT. For those in northern and eastern Australia, pay attention to the forecasts because they will change rapidly in coming days and likely turning very wet.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days


A closer look in - this is unlikely to come off but what the model is expressing is a return to moisture and heavy rainfall over northern areas and storms for interior parts.

More after 9pm EDT.



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