QLD - THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST THROUGH THE STATE, SHOWERS INCREASING FOR THE COAST.

The weather is still not dry for the state, we have lost the severe weather risks across the region for now (away from the isolated cell based thunderstorm risks) but the weather is still holding firm in the showery weather for the coast and the thunderstorm activity building for inland areas over the coming days.


For now, the heaviest rainfall in the state will be found where the trade winds converge through the FNQ region with moderate to heavy rainfall developing through the period. Showers will extend southwards down the coast to the NSW border in onshore winds, where the areas picking up the heaviest are exposed to the east to southeast flow.


Inland areas will see scattered showers and thunderstorms near a developing trough. We can see that today and this evening through central eastern QLD and this will continue to graduate slowly west and south throughout the coming 2-3 days. Some of the storms may be severe with heavy rainfall and damaging winds.


The storm risks will continue into next week for inland areas, but the trough over the state will open up and weaken a little so the coverage becoming widely scattered. For coastal areas, more showers in southeast winds, typical weather for this time of year.


Another system of interest will develop near SA in the upper levels mid to late next week and may offer a chance of severe weather redeveloping for areas south and west of the state, so will keep an eye on that for areas not wanting anymore rainfall in the disaster zones.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains persistent about the coastal areas from the NSW border all the way to about Hervey Bay and then again from near Mackay through to Thursday Island. The heaviest of the rainfall for coastal areas will be along the exposed coastal fringe and areas that have topography capturing the southeast to easterly flow and enhancing the shower coverage. This will persist for much of the outlook. For inland areas, the random pop up showers and thunderstorms will continue. Some severe weather possible with the thunderstorm activity tomorrow and possibly Saturday before the risk contracts south into NSW. Next week we have got more showers for the coast in onshore winds and over the inland the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will thin out a tad. The focus of more widespread rainfall will move back into SA and NSW with another developing upper low. Note, with thunderstorms in the mix, this is a guide and not the absolute when it comes to what you can expect.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms may continue overnight and contract towards the Capricornia Coast with moderate to heavy falls (200mm at Gladstone overnight was one of these storm clusters). Storm coverage will be scattered, some of the storms turning severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main threats at this time. The risk will continue overnight into Saturday about the NSW border.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Flash flooding may occur with thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening along and to the west of a trough moving slowly westwards through the state. Thunderstorms may also bring flash flooding over Cape York.

Damaging Winds Friday

Damaging winds are also possible in the vicinity of a trough that will deepen over the Darling Downs. The risk will extend north into the Central Highlands.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and the day to day spread of a national wrap of the weather. It puts into the context the weather to come in the short and medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The latest synoptic shows troughing building over the eastern inland of the nation with the easterly wind regime, not as strong, but enough to feed moisture into these troughs to help trigger scattered falls for inland NSW and QLD. This may creep into the ACT and VIC on the holiday Monday. The east coast through this period looks showery, espeically for QLD and northern NSW. In the west we have another trough that will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow through Sunday before clearing into the east. The remains of that trough will likely merge with another trough over the Bight leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms developing from mid to late next week over portions of eastern SA and then increasing further over VIC, NSW and southern QLD. There is a chance we may see an ECL developing off the NSW coast in the medium term which I will acknowledge under these current circumstances is a moderate chance so will be watching closely. Otherwise the tropics will see increasing showers and thunderstorms with the chance of that moisture running southwards at some stage which could help to bring up rainfall chances into WA and SA which may see only light rainfall for now.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content across the nation in the past few days has been reduced thanks to southerly winds, you will feel that during tomorrow morning with the coolest start since last October for many. Humidity will increase over in the west in the upper levels and help spawn showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon near a trough. The moisture in the east of QLD will be pulled west by easterly winds and rainfall chances will be coming up as the trough over inland QLD and NSW also moves west. Through the weekend and into next week, with the constant northeast flow as the high sits southeast of Australia, this area of instability will draw in more moisture and broaden the risk of rainfall. The moisture from WA will merge with the moisture over the east and as an upper system moves into this large mass of humidity, widespread rainfall and thunderstorms could emerge along with a severe weather risk. The tropics seeing deepening moisture levels as the MJO moves closer to Australia and rolls over northern states. We could see that moisture drawn south through the nation via the jet stream.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for further information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further information

A closer look in - refer to the video for the fly around analysis across the country - this forecast will change as we get better clarity on the tropics and the upper system over the southeast.

More information coming up from 8pm EDT looking at the models and all things rainfall and there is lots to unpack there with the potential for more widespread falls in the short and medium term. But can some be shared with areas that have missed out?

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