QLD - THUNDERSTORMS CONTRACTING WEST THROUGH THE STATE - SHOWERS AND WINDY FOR THE COAST.

The high pressure system to the southeast of the nation is set to move further east in the coming days, sending QLD into a strong easterly onshore flow, leading to more showers along the coast and cooler than normal conditions. Some areas could see moderate rainfall accumulation over this period, but the severe weather risks have abated for eastern and central parts of the state.


Thunderstorms will fire up over the west again tomorrow, but may contract further west during the weekend with a humid and relatively stable flow for the inland, so maybe a dry and humid few days west of the divide.


Coastal areas could see showery weather as mentioned, in those onshore winds for a good part of the outlook before the winds turn northeasterly and the showers decrease.


Over the north, the monsoon is expected to deepen north of the nation which could result in more widespread rainfall for Cape York and the Gulf. There is also a chance of a tropical low developing nearby the north which could enhance rainfall chances.


For now the next wave of orgnaised severe weather for southern and central areas is likely to be next week, after Australia Day, once the trough out of the NT and SA lifts out and passes into the state leading to more widespread showers and thunderstorms.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be concentrated along and to the east of the divide in QLD with onshore winds driving showers and windy weather. The inland west of the divide is expected to turn drier but remain humid with the ridge introducing a more stable airmass. The north of the state, becoming wetter with a strong signal for the monsoon to return. Heavy falls will return to the northern districts with areas of flooding possible. Next week, the showers and thunderstorms will likely return to the interior of QLD and increase in coverage with severe weather a moderate to high chance mid to late next week, as the trough from SA moves into the very humid air that will be laying in wait over QLD.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are expected to move west through QLD during the day though a few thundery showers may develop about the southern border with NSW but the coverage not as widespread as recent days. Thunderstorms may also develop for Cape York and the Gulf Country with locally heavy falls, and for much of northwest QLD.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

A low to moderate risk of flash flooding with larger storms over Northwest QLD during the afternoon and evening.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Damaging winds may impact communities along the NT border during the afternoon and evening.

DATA - Refer to video for more information on the daily breakdown


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

As mentioned in the video above, the features to watch are the trough over SA, does that stay stationary, bringing heavy rainfall for multiple days over central SA through to the NT with flooding a high risk, or does that trough weaken or does it move east? This will dictate weather over the central and eastern parts of the nation and this is what models are struggling with. The GFS keeps it stationary. Very humid air and stable weather for the eastern inland of the nation with above average humidity values will make things feel pretty foul. Showers and thunder for the east coast in onshore winds, some of those could be heavy for NSW and southeast QLD. The tropics, the feature to watch is the monsoon trough and whether a low pressure system forms in the trough. If it does develop, does that form near WA, NT or QLD? Models have diverged on that idea as pointed out today, that too has a major impact on rainfall and moisture forecasts moving forward. Finally, the SAM, does that turn neutral allowing the west of the nation to cool down for a number of days thanks to the westerly wind belt moving north. Does that westerly wind belt flush the humidity north? Plenty of moving pieces and sadly more questions than answers right now.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

As mentioned in the video, a very rich and broadly moist airmass will result in high rainfall chances for the nation, and where troughs form, flash and riverine flooding is possible for many areas through this period. The monsoon over the north looking to crank as well, and that will add more moisture to the nation meaning a wet end to January and start of February.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further details

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further details

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further details

A closer look in - the heavy rainfall over the north is related to the monsoon, you can see where that hangs up over the state. Note the spotty nature of rainfall through the interior so that denotes showers and thunderstorms, but for the east coast, persistent showers may lead to 100-200mm for some areas.

More coming up after 9pm EDT with a look at the models and the rainfall forecasts. Very much a divergent bunch of data right now.

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