QLD - THUNDERSTORMS CONTRACTING WEST OVER THE COMIGN DAYS. MONSOON UP NORTH - SHOWERY IN THE EAST.

The weather over the state is fairly typical for a La Nina which is in the process of peaking, leading to more cloud, rainfall and humid weather.


This week, we are seeing a reduction of rainfall over the interior parts of the state, however the humidity will remain very much above average, so the isolated showers and thunderstorms will be about for the forecast period but the coverage remaining few and far between.


Along the east coast, showery weather today, will start to decrease in frequency and intensity with the high ridging up the coastal areas, but the onshore flow is moisture laden so the low topped showers and drizzle will continue and below average temperatures.


Over the north, the monsoon is expected to redevelop and we may see a tropical low over the Gulf country and northwest during this period, enhancing rainfall and flood potential. The monsoon will likely cross the north this weekend and could come south to lay over the region bound from Cardwell to just north of Mt Isa through to Elliot. That would lead to heavy rainfall on and north of this feature.


The next major storm outbreak for the southern and central areas looks to come later next week with the trough out of SA.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be heaviest and concentrated over northern areas of the state with the monsoon cranking, leading to heavy rainfall and areas of flooding developing during this time. Elsewhere, widespread showers along the coast will begin to decrease as the flow stabalises through the coming days, but the rainfall won't clear. Areas west of the divide, dry and mostly fine and very humid with only very isolated showers and thunderstorms developing most afternoons. The weather becoming more unsettled later next week as instability from the north and west begins to fold over the state, so the rainfall will pick up for most districts in the back half of next week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms will continue for most of far west and southwestern QLD with gusty storms possible for the southwest. Over the north, thunderstorms increasing with the monsoon trough approaching from the north. Some of those storms could be heavy and gusty with areas of flash flooding possible.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

A low to moderate risk of flash flooding over Cape York and the far northwest during the afternoon and evening with the flood risk continuing overnight into the weekend over tropical areas.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

A few storms in the very far west and southwest may produce some gusty conditions with the main risks over SA and NT.

DATA - Refer to the video for the breakdown of daily weather information for the short and medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The short term offers that severe weather event over SA, that will be the focus of the forecasts for much of the outlook period. Heavy rainfall lasting for much of the period will result in flooding of large areas of the outback. Moisture will eventually spill eastwards into NSW and VIC with showers and thunderstorms increasing. This will be the case in southern QLD as well. For the north the wet weather is set to increase dramatically in the coming days. Modelling remains poor for the medium term, so focussing more on the short term, the pieces are in place. The monsoon trough over the north will bring a renewed burst of heavy rainfall and strong winds from the weekend throughout the remainder of the month feeding troughs over the southern and eastern inland of the nation, leading to more above average rainfall chances. I will mention that the tropical activity up north indicates the monsoon will remain in place over northern Australia and now is the time for people living in the north of the nation to be prepared for significant weather in the coming weeks with monsoonal break conditions ending.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

A very deep moisture source remains the dominant feature for much of the nation bar the far southwest of the nation and the eastern inland for a period this weekend as the high rotates through to the Tasman Sea. Humidity values will increase for most of the nation next week with higher temperatures and unstable weather also featuring. Where it rains, it will be efficient and productive weather.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

A closer look in - the GFS printing out 3.5m of rainfall for the Gulf..... otherwise ignore that drier slot over central QLD. The state unsettled through the second half of the period. Showery along the east coast.

More details coming up in the models and rainfall wrap for all you rain lovers!!!

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