The trough that has brought wild weather to parts over the past 2 days is lifting out tonight and a drier more stable airmass developing from the west for Wednesday. This upper high will suppress thunderstorm activity for much of the state, however there is still the small chance of a few pockets picking up a few afternoon showers or thunder.

The weather is consolidating west of the state over the NT and SA with a deep layer of moisture being infused into a trough, which is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms during Wednesday afternoon and evening throughout the interior of the nation. Some of these will work their way into the far west tomorrow night.

Thursday and Friday, the gradual eastward progression of the trough will see the showers and thunderstorms slowly move towards the southern and central inland of the state and coastal areas by the weekend.

Some of the storms could once again become severe.

Northern tropical areas are expected to remain hot and humid, but those heat levels could come up further with an upper high overhead. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are once again possible for Cape York and showers over the eastern coast north of Mackay will pick up over the weekend and into next week in easterly winds, mainly morning and night.

Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is easing for the coming days with high pressure moving in. But come about Thursday evening or Friday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will return over the western and southern inland with uneven distribution of rainfall expected to feature once more. Showers also along the coast with mainly light falls, these expected north of Mackay. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the weekend for southeast and central areas with a stalled trough will continue the patchy falls about the state. Next week the coverage of showers and storms may increase as the trough deepens and easterly winds return.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are expected to clear tonight as the trough moves away and perhaps return to the Wide Bay and Burnett and extend through to the Central Highlands during the afternoon as well as the Carnarvon Ranges. Storms are expected to be fairly isolated and non severe.

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pressure pattern is turning active, more details can be found on GFS in the video but do note that the Euro and GFS are starting to converge on the idea that the nation is getting more unsettled and humid throughout the coming 10-14 days. So be prepared for higher humidity values moving forward and more prolonged periods of rain and thunderstorm activity.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The precipitable water values paint that picture of wetter as we go through the outlook period with the deep moisture likely to be lifted by multiple areas of low pressure passing through from west to east across the nation. Note the southwest sitting under persistent ridging leading to less rainfall and cooler weather than normal for this time of year.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more advice around the rainfall trends.

A closer look in

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 weeks

Refer to video for more

Further updates on the model madness and rainfall data after 9pm

4 views0 comments