A dynamic atmosphere continues to sit over part of the Central and Southeast QLD coast. Thunderstorms have been very intense across parts of the Capricorina where giant hail and destructive winds have been reported once again, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding not so much of a concern. Away from the east, it has been settled and dry, this is expected to continue for the coming few days.
The weather over the east will begin to improve by the end of the week as the trough and upper low moves off. The showers won't totally clear but it will give us a chance to not have destructive weather for a few days which is a nice change.
Through the weekend, the temperatures out west will move back into the 30s with a trough passing over. The air is dry so not much rainfall expected. Another trough is expected to develop from the NT through central and southeast QLD with the chance of more severe thunderstorms over the weekend and next week.
So storms season is here and it as forecast, is a very active season.
Lets take a look
Rainfall next 10 days
Scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing tonight will clear but will be back tomorrow afternoon over much of the east and southeast coastal areas with a trough lingering throughout the region. The western districts for now will be dry. The next trough will arrive in the state from Saturday and this trough is expected to fire off another band of showers and thunderstorms for the central and eastern districts, with another round of severe weather possible. Rainfall distribution will remain uneven in distribution as we have seen of late. The tropics expected to turn more humid and unsettled.
Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday
Severe thunderstorms should wind down in the coming hour or two. They will be back during Thursday afternoon and evening in the same zones with the risk of severe thunderstorms once again. All modes of severe weather possible. They may continue about the Central Coast overnight and early morning and especially about the islands.
Large Hail Risk Thursday
Large hail a moderate risk again with thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening from inland of Brisbane, extending north to about Mackay once again. The risk of giant hail is low but not impossible
Damaging Winds Risk Thursday
Damaging winds will continue to feature with the stronger storms. Isolated destructive wind gusts/tornados remain low risk but present if storms can reach supercellular status. That will be dependent upon early morning activity.
Flash Flood Risk Thursday
Flash flooding once again a low to moderate chance with the multicellular storms that train over the same region for a longer duration.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days
As per the video - the Euro is the solution I am siding with. Note the flow of westerly winds is being pushed south and all of a sudden severe weather season has erupted as per my forecasts on that back in July. We are looking at more of the same over the coming 4-5 days, a persistence forecast. The cooler weather over the southern coastal areas will be replaced by a warmer phase next week and then we will likely see the stormy daily events over northern Australia, shift further south through next week and come into the southeast and eastern inland by the end of the month into early November. This is the typical seasonal shift.
Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days
The moisture again is building over the tropics and with a warmer atmosphere it lends itself to promoting more volatile weather which we have seen over QLD and NSW over recent days, larger scale rainfall events as well, the air can hold more moisture so when the low pressure systems return, be aware that it will be raining a lot. For now we continue with a drier picture for those under the upper high over eastern SA, western NSW and QLD as well as northern VIC. The east coast sees showers and storms in that humid airmass that gets stuck, which extends over the tropics which is typical. Be aware the forecast confidence beyond day 5 is poor at the moment.
Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to the video for more details.
GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to the video for more guidance - but that is a warmer pattern with scattered storms across the country.
More details on all things rainfall coming up after 9pm EDT.