QLD - THE SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE CONTINUES.

Again, if there was more weather than dry and sunny, you would be getting more updates that are different, but again it is looking settled for the next 5-7 days with a ridge in place holding the pattern firm, with sunny days and breezy cool conditions over the south but much warmer weather developing over the north.


The only weather of significance is the chance of frost, some severe, during Friday morning. Then after the frost some areas could get into the low 30s this weekend!!


As pointed out in the medium term forecasting, the weather is set to shift during the second week of August, and that provides some hope for rainfall to return to the region with the westerly winds moving south and a chance of easterly winds developing, bringing back coastal showers initially.


Lets have a look at modelling.


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The next 16 days is being dominated by high pressure but the pattern flip looks to take place later in the outlook, so I do think the dry look will start to shift next week as we bring in the middle of August into the shorter term forecast packages.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall is pretty poor but we may see the falls increase mid month over parts of the QLD coast as winds turn easterly and humidity increases. We may even see a few showers over the NT. That will be something to watch as we track through the coming week, the moisture building up over the north and northwest of the nation may be drawn south once we lose the fast flow pattern.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Very similar to the GFS but does bring through the pattern flip a little earlier than the GFS with easterly winds returning. The model also builds moisture quicker through the end of the run, which may be able to produce more inland rainfall for large parts of Australia from the second week of August. For now most areas are dry.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

As you can see, not much rainfall about, but there is more moisture building up over the inland which I will be watching, as that sits in a better spot for rainfall to return to QLD. For now most areas are dry.

00z Euro Precipitable Water for the coming 10 days

The sequence that plays out over the west of the nation at the end of the first week of August and into the second week of August is the pattern flip I have been talking about, now it won't look quite like this but notice the high pressure is the dominant force for a number of days later in the outlook, which is enough to shift conditions.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Not a whole lot of love in the rainfall department, but again watch the moisture over the north and the northwest in the medium term. Also some chance of showers maybe later Sunday and mid next week for extreme southern areas and a few showers as winds turn easterly mid next week over FNQ.

More weather to come.

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