QLD - THE DRY CONTINUES WITH SEASONAL WEATHER FOR MOST REGIONS THIS WEEK. WARMER DAYS INLAND.

ANALYSIS

It remains fairly settled for large areas of the state and that looks to continue for the remainder of the week, into the weekend and into next week.


Coastal areas south of Hervey Bay could see a few showers with a trough skirting past the coast during the weekend with mainly light falls, some could exceed 20mm along the NSW border but otherwise not much rainfall is expected in the short term.


SHORT TERM

As mentioned, the high pressure is remaining the dominant force, with easterly winds along the northern flank of this high bringing a few showers across Cape York down to about Cairns. Not much rainfall will get inland.


Dry and warmer days developing this weekend as we see the high pressure ridge move further east with a northwest to westerly flow developing in advance of a trough over SA and NSW from later this weekend.


LONG TERM

Moisture building over northern and northeast parts of the state could be drawn southwards into the state during the latter part of next week, if we see an upper trough form over the NT and a colder airmass surging northwards into the southeast and eastern inland, leading to widespread rainfall developing with thick cloud over the state, but it still a long way out and the models continue to struggle with this..


AREAS TO WATCH

Once again the area of interest is the potential for moisture to pour southwards into the eastern and southeast inland of the nation with an upper trough moves over Central Australia leading to a broad band of cloud with widespread rainfall developing over QLD, NSW eastern SA and VIC. This has appeared on some of the global models for the end of the month but the forecast confidence remains low.


The Southern Annular Mode remaining strongly negative could shoot up colder air in the medium too, meeting the moisture surging southwards into the country leading to those rainfall chances, but with the SAM negative for the period, frontal weather is also likely to feature for southern Australia


WEATHER VIDEO PM - WEDNESDAY 15TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Still a big bag of nothing for many of you inland for the coming period, but there will be some scattered showers along the coast with mainly light falls for most of you, but the forecast is looking dry north of Hervey Bay. Some potential for more widespread rainfall developing in the medium term exists if we see moisture spreading south into an upper trough coming through from the NT. The weather overall, is of low confidence and so keeping the weather dry for most of you is the right call but be aware, the models are suggesting widespread rainfall while others are not, so that divergence will need to be ironed out before you see colour being drawn back on these charts through the inland.

Rainfall over the east coast is expected this weekend but as mentioned, mainly south of Hervey Bay. More light and patchy rainfall may start to develop from later next week into the following weekend as a pressure trough develops over the north, but as mentioned, that system is a way off and will continue to carry low confidence.

Frost Risk Forecast Thursday

Another cold night with clear skies and light winds will lead to areas of morning frost, some moderate in coverage and intensity about areas above 250m above sea level. A warmer northerly flow will start to mix through the atmosphere from 8am and pleasant weather should rapidly evolve.

MEDIUM TERM

June 22nd-29th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

I know it may be frustrating to see a lot of white on the board but until there is higher confidence on that northern rainfall event, the nation as a whole look to be sitting at seasonal rainfall expectations through the end of the month, with once again the caveat being on that rainfall emerging over the tropics in medium term in future data runs, so watch closely.

Temperature Anomalies

Cooler bias strengthening for parts of the eastern inland once again with a cold pool of air riding behind a cold front later next week then sitting over the eastern interior, continuing to buck the trend of climate models that were suggesting somewhat warmer conditions than what we have observed in the east. Seasonal temperatures out west but the warmer weather over the northwest will continue with dry air.

DATA - Refer to the video for more context on the short and medium term. Notes will be provided under any of the graphics below to highlight weather of concern.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more information on the short and medium term and also the current trend for rainfall spreading across the nation in the medium is of low confidence. The southeast is looking the wettest as we move through the coming week with frontal weather to stay there.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture over the west of the nation has now migrated over the southern parts of the country and into the southeast with troughs and fronts running into this leading to widespread falls in the short term. As mentioned this morning, the position of the trough and upper features over northern parts of the country in relationship to the very high moisture load over the northern waters will lead to higher rainfall chances over the north and east, but where....no one can tell you so keep watching.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - more on this coming up at 8pm tonight but the rainfall numbers into the medium term are low confidence as you can see from this morning.

vs this evening

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall, I will only share information that is in reasonable agreement as too much is too confusing and I only want to share what is plausible at this time, so stay tuned for that.

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