QLD - THE AIRMASS CHANGE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM FRIDAY IN THE SOUTH.

The colder shift is nearly complete through the state as we have had some of the colder mornings of the year so far this morning, and that is likely to be replicated again on Thursday morning under a ridge of high pressure. A dry day is expected tomorrow through much of the state with an increase of high cloud over in the west giving way to patchy rainfall at night through the Channel Country.


Dry weather for central and northern areas on Friday but a cold rain is forecast for southern areas with a few moderate falls over 10mm running along the NSW border. The rainfall will clear the west during the late afternoon and make the coast by the evening with mainly light falls. All of this should be out the door by Saturday morning.


Next week looks relatively quiet weather wise, with some high cloud about with jet stream cloud moving through from west to east at pace. High pressure ridging over the state and an upper high developing over the northern tropics, is expected to keep things mostly dry and clear with a westerly wind and below average temperatures.


The below average temperatures are forecast to appear thanks to the cold outbreak redeveloping over the southeast states, this colder being propelled over the eastern inland. Some chance that we see the below average tempeartures impact all regions south of the tropics right through next week with the thickness of the cloud determining how much below average the temperatures are expected to be.


Into the latter part of next week, conditions may start to warm a little as the new high pressure system approaches from the west, but there may be further cloud running through the jet stream, which could offset the warming trend in some areas, so it is not looking like we will see a great deal of recovery in the temperatures for a while.


But in better news, it does look the driest it has been on the charts for the short at least, all year!


Let’s take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to develop over southwest areas during the late afternoon on Thursday before it spreads over southern areas on Friday with the risk of a few moderate falls along this brand, rather low. The rainfall will continue to move through to the coast by Friday afternoon and clear overnight into Saturday. Then most areas turn dry over the weekend and into much of next week. There will be some cloud cover running through the jet stream with the risk of light and patchy falls again over interior areas but overall, more cloud than rainfall at this time. The next rainfall event of substance for the state is forecast to appear during the medium term.

A broad band of rain in the coming 48hrs will clip the southwest and southern areas of the state bordering NSW with some moderate falls of up to 15-20mm possible. Some patchy dribbles elsewhere but overall, the wettest weather for the state is in the short term with drier air and more stable weather developing next week.

Frost Forecast Thursday

The coldest morning of the year for many is expected on Thursday with local morning frost, lighter over the Plains and along the NSW border with QLD, but heavier along the slopes where it may be severe. Some areas around the ACT could see frost becoming heavy and severe from before midnight tonight. Conditions will ease after 8am.

Farmers and Graziers Alert

Be advised that the cold and windy wet weather is forecast to develop once again over the southeast inland from Friday but more particularly from Saturday and Sunday through early next week for VIC. Conditions may ease for NSW from Tuesday. The graziers alert may be extended northwards in coming updates if the southerly flow increases.

MEDIUM TERM

June 8th-15th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Widespread rainfall over the northern parts of the nation is expected to spread eastwards. The rainfall over WA looks to be heaviest, and the wild card system to watch is over the NT and how much moisture there can be drawn south and southeast into the NT and QLD. The rest of the nation is forecast to be mostly seasonal, there may be a slight drier bias over the southeast inland and southwest inland but overall leaning seasonal for now, thanks to so much moisture sitting over the nation's north and northwest.

Temperature Anomalies

Colder air remaining over the inland will be supported by significant cloud cover running through the jet stream leading to the widespread cooler signal. Onshore winds over the southern and southwest areas of the nation leading to showery cold conditions. The temperatures over the northern tropics may come down from the high temperatures and humidity as more cloud develops over the region leading to a trend towards below average conditions.

DATA - Refer to video for more details and context to the information shared this evening.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details in the video but watch that trough in the short term over the eastern inland with the risk of moderate rainfall, signaling the impacts of the Indian Ocean are now affecting the eastern inland of the country now via the jet stream. The southeast showery and cold with the colder than normal temperatures to forecast through next week. Another strong burst of moisture is forecast to impact the west next week and the rainfall numbers are coming up for the SWLD. Tropical weather also not adopting the dry season just yet, with more humid air to persist over the northern coastal areas.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture values are looking more seasonal over southern areas of the nation with a colder and blustery wind regime underway and this is leading to the below average temperatures. Troughing over northern Australia is supportive of the above average moisture being pulled southeast and south through the nation as we track through the short term and once again next week, continuing the procession of rainfall events emanating out of tropical Australia. The moisture values are coming up for much of WA including Ag Areas, now with a higher confidence of rainfall returning through next week to this region while the east dries out. Watching the tropical north very closely, especially about the NT and far north of Cape York.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - Some reasonable winter rainfall over the interior in the coming 2 days, mainly near the NSW border. The medium-term forecast is running at low confidence but a lot of the falls you see along the coast comes in the medium term.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.


0 views0 comments