QLD - STORMS OVER THE WEST SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE STATE. MONSOON UP NORTH.

Along the coast, there have been onshore winds driving showers for most of the past week, these are expected to decrease with a ridge running up the the coast. The higher humidity is expected to be in place across the state with very warm conditions and very few showers for now.


The main weather to watch is sitting over the NT and SA with severe weather conditions expected to continue across those areas, it will eventually move eastwards over the coming 10 days, some heavy rainfall may sweep into the western districts with storms this week.


Otherwise, it is a bit of a wait for showers and thunderstorms to return in widespread coverage, but for much of this week, a very high chance of high humidity and fair weather conditions until we see the trough migrate eastwards.


Up north, the monsoon is expected to increase the rainfall coverage. The rainfall could be heavy at times with widespread showers and thunderstorms about. A tropical depression may redevelop near the Gulf with enhanced rainfall chances.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is anticipated to be heaviest over northern and western areas with a fair chunk of the eastern inland remaining dry for much of this week with only a few showers and thunderstorms about. The weather will remain fairly stagnant with a slack pressure pattern with rinse and repeat weather for a good part of this week. The severe weather risks start to increase over the western areas of the state and will gradually move eastwards with the trough. By the weekend coming, the thundery weather may be sitting over the southern and central inland extending back over the tropics and into the NT. Heavy rainfall leading to flooding is a chance, highest over the northern and western parts.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are likely over the western and northern parts of QLD with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding a chance. Some falls may be intense at times over the southwest and west of the state.

Flash Flood Risk

Flash flooding is a high to very high risk over much of the west of the state with heavy falls leading to intense flooding in some areas, especially over the southwest of the state.

Riverine Flood Risk

Widespread flooding is expected to develop over the NT and SA and this may extend into northern and western areas by the week's end. So a heads up for you cattle farmers and produce farmers through the western and northern areas.

DATA - More analysis in the video.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Not much to add from the video other than disregard that system over the southeast in the medium term, the model will likely remove that in the next run. What it is suggesting is that the weather is expected to remain unsettled for northern and eastern areas of the nation with a strengthening monsoon. The weather in the west remains hot and dry, that carries a high confidence. As we enter February, we should begin to feel the impacts of that peaking La Nina which it is in the process of doing.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

A very rich environment for productive rainfall, of record proportions for some areas. We have seen that occur in many parts of SA and do not think that cannot be replicated again off the back of what we are seeing on the synoptic scale in combination with the near record moisture values.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - looking at the synoptic scale, the rainfall totals will bounce around a lot and with thunderstorms in the mix in the very high moisture levels, rainfall totals will exceed what is shown here in many areas.

More weather coming up tonight on all things rainfall and the models for the week ahead. Take care in the wild weather across parts this evening.




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