It is seasonal across QLD for this time of year. The weather likely to remain at seasonal values right across the state.

In the north we have a strong trough feeding off the trade winds which is producing widespread rain and thunderstorms with locally heavy falls. Over the southwest and west of the state, a stalled trough is kicking off showers and thunderstorms with some moderate to heavy falls in isolated pockets.

For the south, a decent drive of drier is being overrun and the trough over in the west will eventually come through to the southeast and east bringing scattered showers and storms back.

Along the coast, showers are featuring but no washouts expected at this time.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be relatively scattered over the far southwest and west with a trough in the region triggering the random airmass storm activity. Some of those could be severe. Along the coast, scattered showers are forecast to continue this week, tending widespread north of Mackay and tend to areas of rain with locally heavy falls about the FNQ coast. This will be a feature through much of this week as the late season rainfall ramps up as seasonally expected. As we get into the weekend, a large trough will pass through the state bringing scattered showers of thunderstorms from west to east with the clearance forecast over the west and south this weekend.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are forecast to continue overnight and into Tuesday about the southwest and west of the state with some of the storms possibly severe about the far southwest and northwest of the state as well. Flash flooding with heavy onshore rainfall in the absence of thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern side of Cape York and down to FNQ.

Flash Flood Risk Tuesday

Flash flooding is a moderate to high risk about FNQ with onshore winds combining the trough in the region. This will continue for the days ahead. Thunderstorms over the far west and southwest could also produce some flash flooding as well.

Damaging Winds Risk Tuesday

Damaging winds are a moderate risk along a trough extending into NSW and into SA with the risk highest along the far southwest regions.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information on the daily breakdown in the short and medium term.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The confidence in the forecast is quite low as outlined in the video. Understand that the volatility in the SAM and the MJO being a little slower in recent updates means that moisture spreading throughout the nation could be out of phase with the frontal weather passing south of the country. But the GFS is on it's own in the short term when it comes to passing moisture later this weekend throughout the nation with a cloud band producing patchy falls throughout SA, VIC, NSW and QLD. So understand that this will change. Tropics look active and the weather over the FNQ region looks to be very wet near the persistent trade winds.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture distribution continues to be quite volatile from run to run, so there is difficulty in placing the moisture beyond the severe thunderstorm outbreak over the south and east of the country. So this will continue to impact the rainfall distribution as we move through the coming few days and so expect changes for southern and eastern parts of the nation. Over the tropics, you will find the significant moisture continue to kick off storms most days, with the heaviest moisture reserved for FNQ. Moisture does build offshore WA in the medium term but does that connect with the long wave trough building in the Southern Indian Ocean and bring in a large cloud band towards the end of the month? That remains to be seen.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z CMC- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - the weather over the region is highly conditional upon the MJO moving over the north of the nation with heavier rainfall in the medium term. The weather in the east wet in the first part of the period but could wane as the SAM turns negative.

More details coming up looking at the models and all things rainfall from after 9pm EDT - we will see what the data sets are looking like for the medium and longer term and whether there is more rumbling about the Autumn Break that has been lurking on the charts.

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