Severe high end thunderstorms are expected to form over QLD today, especially through the southern and southeast inland. There is a very good chance that we will be dealing with a number of dangerous thunderstorms simultaneously throughout the southeast and southern inland and up to about the Wide Bay today.
Most of you follow radar trends and know the social media pages to go to, I will fill the gaps with where the weather is going today.
Organised mesoscale convective system (MCS) has now begun to weaken and head offshore the east coast, that said, the energy released may have taken a lot of the punch out of the surfaced based instability over SEQ today. We won't know until later this morning how the atmosphere recovers. There is sufficient clearance further west of this complex and temperatures are rising. The warmer the air, the more unstable the air becomes and with the trough nearby and all the parameters running high supporting severe thunderstorms, the risk of dangerous weather is still elevated despite this wet weather this morning. Thunderstorms are expected to form over the northern and central inland but unlikely to be severe at this time.
Currently watching the severe thunderstorms weaken over the SEQ inland areas with areas of moderate rain, gusty winds and small hail observed. That is now in the process of clearing. Further thunderstorms are expected to develop from later this morning and into the afternoon. Main window for severe weather from 2pm EST through to Midnight tonight. Once the trough passes through, the air turns dry and stable. That will take place along the coast from tomorrow afternoon, the trough is slow moving.
Areas of severe thresholds today. The potentially dangerous thunderstorm zone may be revoked if cloud cover lingers over the coming hours.
Thunderstorm Forecast QLD and NT - Thursday
Thunderstorms are expected to erupt along a trough passing through southern QLD during Thursday afternoon with the risk of damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. There is also a chance in the purple zone for supercell thunderstorms, where tornados, giant hail and intense flash flooding may occur. The upper atmosphere supports significant convection on Thursday for this region. The areas further, a lot further away from the strong severe weather dynamics will see thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Some of these could have warnings on them as well. The tropics, active for this time of year.
Large Hail Risk Thursday
Large to giant hail is a concern through the southeast inland of QLD during Thursday afternoon as a trough rolls through the region. This atmosphere is a powder keg and we need the sun to certainly help it explode into action during Thursday. The warmer it gets the more volatile the convection and the higher the risk of hail in the purple zone. Giant hail is possible with 1-2 supercells in the region.
Flash Flood Risk Thursday
Flash flooding is possible across pockets of the inland and over the NT during the afternoon and evening. The higher risk sits back over the southeast inland with the passage of a trough. Storms could produce intensive rainfall rates of 100mm/hr plus. With the modest storm motion, that could see some areas clear 50mm in quick time.
Damaging Winds Risk Thursday
Damaging straight line winds are possible if storms orgnaise into a squall line and march towards the coast during the afternoon and evening. Winds could exceed 100km/h in scattered pockets under such circumstances over the southeast. Downbursts with heavy rainfall will see isolated gusty winds over the tropical north.
Tornado Risk Thursday
Discrete supercell thunderstorms developing ahead of any line of thunderstorms over the southeast of QLD could rotate and produce one or two tornados within the moderate risk zone. The cloud cover may mitigate this risk a little.
Latest data has come in and there is no change to the above forecast, we now watch radar trends and you are all across that. I will keep watch and post when necessary. We have had a long lead in time and now we wait and see how the forecast verifies.