The inland areas, once this week gone was looking quite wet, now looking relatively dry, the swings and roundabouts when it comes to upper air modelling really showing how fickle it can be. At this time, only isolated falls at best for parts of inland QLD, especially the further west you travel through the state.
An upper level disturbance moving north across NSW on Wednesday will lift further north on Thursday and stall out over the SE of QLD during the latter part of this week and combine with the onshore wind bringing more widespread showers for the SE Inland. Another upper disturbance moving through inland NSW will combine with the initial trough and this could provide robust thunderstorm development for southern and eastern inland districts of QLD.
The forecast here will continue to evolve.
Now for northern areas, the rainfall is expected remain fairly scattered for the coming days but on the weekend, the trade winds will freshen and become more unstable, linking into a trough over the region. Showers turning to heavy rainfall for the FNQ and Cape York with possible flooding redeveloping.
A tropical low that is forecast to emerge out of the MJO rotating through over the coming week could deepen into a cyclone over the NT or north in the Arafura Sea. At this time the system is more likely to adopt a southerly or southwesterly track but will keep watching.
Enhanced rainfall for the north will mean that this is the wettest region of the state. The driest and warmest locations will be found over the interior west of Charleville through Longreach to Cloncurry and Mount Isa.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is lean over inland areas and I think on current guide, the weather dry for most locations through the next 7 days. It is possible we could see a few showers and thunderstorms, but the weather is forecast to turn wetter the further east you go through the Downs and into the Granite Belt, extending north through the Central Highlands and Coalfields and especially on and east of the divide. Locally heavy falls with thunderstorms are possible in these zones, so rainfall distirbution will be uneven. Over the tropics, rain tending moderate to heavy from the weekend and into next week as the MJO rolls through bringing up the chance of tropical low development. At this time, the main tropical action looks to develop north of the NT. Trade winds along the coast north of Bowen will increase showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls in the usual spots. For Ag areas over the southeast, above average rainfall is possible this weekend and into next week with flash flooding from thunderstorms. No additional riverine flood risk is likely at this time.
Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday
Thunderstorms are possible about the far south during the afternoon and evening, but more productive thunderstorm activity is likely in NSW on Wednesday. Thunderstorms are forecast to emerge in greater number and with a larger impact over the northern tropics and about the Gulf Country, but no severe weather is expected at this time.
DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks
There are more details in the weather video but overall not much change to the overall confidence of the forecast package ahead. There are the main areas to watch, the area to the west of WA with the remains of Charlotte feeding the jet stream and pumping moisture into a trough over the inland could bring the best rainfall chances to the SWLD in months. The east coast tending wetter as we go in the days ahead with a deepening southeast to easterly flow feeding a trough over the inland seeing showers increasing and thunderstorms also returning to some locations of NSW and QLD. Tropical weather also raising an eyebrow with the chance of a second tropical low/cyclone forming off the coast of the NT next week. Otherwise in much of SA, western and northern VIC, southern and western NSW, western QLD and into the southern NT, fairly dry under ridging.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks
No change to the guidance from this morning, with the confidence on the synoptic scale rather low that means all elements do carry a low risk of verifying. Though one area that looks to be drier is around SA and through the western parts of VIC and NSW/QLD. Elsewhere, mixed odds and really coming down to the mesoscale details. A better way of looking at the moisture content against averages is the anomalies, and this highlights why SA is looking so dry, as it just cannot shake the drier air in the short term, but things change as they will, in the medium term.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to the video for more context and analysis
00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to the video for more context and analysis - note the rainfall across the country not as amplified as the GFS.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks
Refer to the video for more context and analysis
A closer look in - the forecast will continue to carry a low confidence strap with numbers all over the board. More details in the video and information coming up after 9pm EDT tonight.
I will have more coming up tonight in a brief look at the broader rainfall data sets after 9pm EDT but another large scale update coming your way during Wednesday morning from 8am EDT.