The weather is tending wetter for the coastal areas of QLD with a southeast to easterly flow becoming more unstable with a trough sitting offshore, pumping in widespread showers. The shower coverage could become thundery about the coast and adjacent inland during Tuesday afternoon with a few heavy falls possible.

The weather should begin to ease a little mid week as the trough moves east away from the QLD coast but the showers over the east facing coast along Cape York down to Innisfail, should remain wet with onshore trade winds.

Over inland areas, dry weather will persist under ridging which is to be expected under the current guide with the upper high. The weather will likely remain dry to next week.

For the tropics, watching the MJO rotating around to be over northern Australia towards the end of the run, so watching out for tropical rainfall to move above the average and the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

For the rest of the state, the SAM tending more positive, may introduce more moisture for inland areas, and the return of showers and thunderstorms for inland areas looks fair by next week.

So things are shifting.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remaining lean to non existent for inland areas for the coming 7 days at least, most of you remaining dry, even in the presence of very isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The wettest weather will be found on the coast, heaviest north of Hervey Bay with the onshore flow combining with the trough offshore, showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage and intensity through mid week before easing again by the end of the week. The showers, may tend heavy most days through the outlook period over the FNQ coast with some areas walking away with several hundred mm of rainfall. The coverage of rainfall returns next week for inland areas in the form of showers and thunderstorms, so more hit and miss rainfall. The positive SAM is likely to result in showery periods for the coast and this feeding the trough inland where storms will also increase. The MJO will also increase over the northern Australia, so heavier rainfall will also return to the tropics. The dry spell is coming to an end.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms may develop about coastal areas and the adjacent inland with a trough hanging offshore, but close enough to produce unsettled weather. Thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in some areas, especially if storms train over the same location for a longer duration. A very low risk of flash flooding is possible. Very isolated thunderstorms are expected over the tropical north.

DATA - Refer to video for further information on the daily breakdown

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

I do love persistence forecasting, no change from this morning, as spoken about, the main climate drivers at play, the SAM and MJO are set to become in phase to produce rainfall and cooler weather for southern, eastern and northern Australia than what we are seeing right now. Inland areas are currently missing out while the coastal areas are recording some pretty hefty shower coverage of eastern QLD and northeast NSW, that is seasonal. The weather is expected to become more humid over inland areas and over northern Australia as the drivers start to combine with the La Nina that is the overarching driver, to bring back that wet weather, severe weather potential and flood risks back. So make the risk of the drier spell while it lasts.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The moisture content is still below average at the moment but that is likely to shift over the coming week and turn above average from mid next week onwards with the onshore winds and the monsoon returning to the picture. So very different weather conditions are expected to form in the coming 10 days, setting the stage for a wet end to the month and a wet start to March.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information and the state based fly around

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information and the state based fly around

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information and the state based fly around

A closer look in - more details in the video

More details coming up tomorrow morning from 8am EDT.

The rainfall and all things modelling posts will return when the guidance improves regarding the rainfall, those posts may return from later this week.

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