QLD - SHOWERS FOR THE TROPICS CONTINUE. MOSTLY DRY ELSEWHERE BUT CONDITIONS MAY SHIFT NEXT WEEK

The weather for the state generally quiet in comparison to previous weeks and months quite frankly. The wettest weather is expected to be found over the north of the state, around the Gulf and Cape York with onshore winds and the trough in region leading to widespread falls for the coming week.


It is in areas further south along the coast from about Mackay southwards, that you find the rainfall coverage thins out. Yes there will be onshore winds, partly cloud skies and showers about but no washouts are forecast at this time.


A few thunderstorms over the southeast inland of the state may produce some locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds, but the severe weather risk for the state in the next week is relatively low.


There are rumblings for a developing upper trough over the Central Australia region, with the chance of inland rainfall remaining fairly low over the west and south of the state, but this said, the risk is not 0, and therefore watching very closely for some late season rainfall chances.


Over the northern tropics, the emergence of the MJO through the eastern Indian Ocean will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms becoming a feature at all times of the day. There is the risk of tropical low development through the north, some models favour the Indian Ocean and areas near the NT but other models build a low over the Gulf Of Carpentaria. Bottom line, the models are showing the risk is increasing for enhanced rainfall over the northern areas of the state.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is still restricted mainly to coastal areas and heaviest up over the sub tropical and tropical coastal areas where the trade winds continue. A trough that brought the heavier and more widespread rainfall is likely to weaken further and lift north. Showers developing over the southeast during the weekend with the chance of thunder and moderate falls. For the interior parts, look it appears to be mostly dry but the signals from the models are so poor and depending what you are looking at, determines your outlook. For now the guidance is terrible so leaving the rainfall light and patchy until we get better indications as to where the moisture from WA is headed into the latter part of next week into the following weekend.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the far northern areas during the afternoon and evening with moderate to heavy bursts of rainfall. There is the chance of a few isolated thundery showers about the Border Ranges with the better coverage back over northern NSW.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

There is more information in the video and to cut down the reading, once again due to low confidence this forecast output from the GFS will change meaning your rainfall, temperatures and humidity values presented on some of the apps available to you are flawed as this will not happen. Refer to the video for more details as to where things are headed across the nation.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture content is all over the board from run to run beyond 5 days so unfortunately we have to be patient for another 2 days I reckon before we get more clarity on conditions for next week. But it is important to watch the videos to keep up to date with trends to see where things are likely to head.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

More on another brief look at the longer term ensemble models after 9pm EDT tonight. Until we get more clarity it will be low confidence forecasting for most areas of the nation, which is normal for this time of year.



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