The weather looking the driest it has been for a long while for many areas inland of the coast and points towards the Outback as a large scale blanket of dry air and higher air pressure combines to bring in the drier look to our weather. This will continue for the coming week, so the forecasts generally easy to remember for most of inland QLD.

Coastal areas, the showers over the next 2 days will begin to contract northwards with the onshore southeasterly flow moderating. The weather for the back half of the week tending drier for coastal areas south of Mackay with a drier westerly flow with above average temperatures likely.

But with the next high ridging into the south of the country, the easterly winds will redevelop and the showers will return from the weekend into next week with light falls expected.

The pattern will take about 10 days to recover back to seasonal rainfall expectations across the state with more scattered showers and thunderstorms so it will be quiet for a while with no severe weather events anticipated at this time.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall very lean for the inland with many areas going rain free for the next 7-10 days with high pressure and dry air in control. No lifting mechanisms at this time of note will lead to dry weather for most areas west of the divide. The east coast is expected to see showers from time to time, but more widespread in the coming 2 days and then again later in the weekend into next week. Even over the tropics, the weather much drier than normal with well below rainfall expectations anticipated this week. That may start to shift as we move into next week as the airflow turns more unstable with the approach of a Rossby Wave.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Not much to see here, with only a few thunderstorms expected for Cape York and around the immediate Gulf Coast. Otherwise, the rest of the state is stable, there may be one or two claps of thunder with a few showers along the coast but not a higher enough probability to draw in at this time.

DATA - Refer to video for further information on the daily breakdown in the short and medium term.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pressure pattern once again largely unchanged from this morning so the persistence forecast continues. You can catch more in the daily breakdown, but at this stage the low confidence forecast strap continues.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The dry airmass looks set to reign for the coming week at least before we see conditions slowly recover over northern and western Australia and this spreads east and southeast in the medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

A closer look in - the forecast is of low confidence and I cannot stress anything beyond about the 7 day mark is likely to change.

More details coming up from 8am EDT. The weather remains very quiet so until there are themes in the medium term that are gathering pace around rainfall, I will introduce the rainfall and model posts. For now there is too much divergence. Tomorrow is Climate Update Tuesday. So look out for that.

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