The weather has finally begun to dry out over the inland of the nation and that has now crept into western and central NSW with a cooler and more stable airmass in place. That stable air really dominating for the best part of this outlook (only a slight risk of a few showers and thunderstorms this weekend for inland areas).
Coastal areas, after that wild weather last night and this morning, the showery periods have eased. Storms on the western flank of a low are also decreasing as the system pulls east from the coast with rainfall intensity decreasing as well.
Overall the weather returns to seasonal values for many locations of QLD, with the inland remaining dry and the coastal areas remaining very much showery with onshore winds remaining in force with high pressure anchored to the south and southeast of the nation through this period.
Now in the upper levels we still have the colder air wafting around through NSW and this could move into the northeast of NSW and or southeast QLD over the weekend, leading to another round of scattered showers and storms for some, but the coverage will not be severe at this time with high pressure closer by and more dry air than moist air in the region.
So overall, the worst of the weather for this sequence is behind us.
For northern areas, the tropics north of Weipa to Coen is expected to remain wet with locally heavy rainfall about. That is connected to the tropical low that is wafting about the Torres Strait. The system is expected to remain slow moving.
Rainfall Next 10 Days
The rainfall is forecast to taper off for much of QLD south of the tropics, with the high pressure over the nation also extending into the QLD region with a drier airmass also over the interior of the state. Coastal areas with the high nearby, your rainfall rates will come down but will not clear so daily showers expected for coastal areas but the coverage isolated and running parallel to the coast into the weekend. Now depending on the performance of an upper low that will move into NSW across the weekend, we could see another round of showers and storms for parts of southeast and southern QLD and an increase of showers for the coastal areas as the moisture finds the instability early next week. So will watch that closely. Overall, no severe weather is expected at this time. Across northern areas of QLD, there is the chance of heavy falls in the very far north with the slow moving tropical low rotating through the Torres Strait.
Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday
Thunderstorms are forecast once again over parts of the southeast inland and coastal areas during the afternoon and evening with another trough moving around a low pressure system out to sea. Storms unlikely to be severe at this time, but will watch closely overnight. The thunderstorm coverage over the north mainly north of the Weipa to Coen and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible about the Gulf Country Coast.
DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks
The pattern is clearly shifting gears now to a drier pattern for many of us and that should be expected at this time of year and should not be of concern considering that we are approaching April and this is very much what I am looking out for. A 2-3 week period of settled, stable weather for the south of the nation is on schedule this year. And the tropics are also responding with the storms and showers decreasing in coverage too.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks
The moisture post the low pressure system in the Tasman Sea is out of here so do expect there to be a drop in overnight temperatures and the risk of frost is not quite there yet for the plains but many areas will get down to the mid single figures over the weekend and into next week as a result. This weather pattern will continue to be with us until next week before temperatures start to rise as the high moves into the Tasman Sea. Many areas by the weekend are looking very much settled and calm from WA through SA and into the eastern states. Showers only found in scattered pockets over the east coast and over the northern areas. So this looks to be the driest weather we have seen since last August.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to the video for more context and analysis
00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
A little more aggressive on the rainfall over the southeast with the low sticking a bit closer through the weekend but I am not sure that it will verify quite like this.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks
Refer to the video for more context and analysis
A closer look in - rainfall numbers are coming down over the coming days and not much is expected inland of the coast from about Friday throughout the period and the rainfall and tropical weather will continue to dry out and contract further north.
Moisture Watch Next Week - April 4-11th 2022
The moisture really gets swept out during the period with the likely area for moisture to remain deep is over the northern tropics and through the northeast tropics and low level moisture along the east coast via southeast to easterly winds. The drier air should remain over the southeast, eastern and southern as well as central inland areas of the nation. There could be a few ports of moisture coming in from the northwest Indian Ocean but these should have minimal impact with the backside of the large upper high kicking the moisture offshore. There will be moisture running through the tropical north and some of this may be drawn southwards into northwest QLD, but with the large high pressure system in play, this will suppress rainfall chances again.
Rainfall Anomalies - April 4th-11th 2022
Above average rainfall chances remain in place over the northeast of the nation with the persistent trough and potential for a tropical low to linger bringing widespread rainfall through the Gulf and into Cape York. Most elsewhere, though it is a dry forecast for most areas across the inland, this is quite normal and so no deviation to drier or wetter than normal is the right forecast. So it is what we call benign Autumnal weather which is great for those on the land getting things sorted ahead of the approaching seasonal changes into the cool season.
Temperature Anomalies Next Week - April 4th-11th 2022
Above average temperatures over the southeast of the nation and extending through central and eastern inland areas of the nation. The northern tropics also looking near to above normal with higher humidity values. Seasonal weather conditions over the east coast with onshore winds and the chance of showers. The weather over the west coast is expected to remain near seasonal for the most part, though eastern districts and through the central and northern interior regions could be leaning above average.
I will have more from 8am EDT, tomorrow I will review the rainfall data sets in the evening.
I just want to get tonight's heavy rainfall off the board and the model data to settle on how that low preforms in the east of the nation as that feature will have impacts for the rest of the nation including how much moisture is propelled northwards into the tropics and into the western interior and how the weather unfolds in the west, does the low in the east block the trough and moisture over the western and northwestern parts of the nation?