Finally, the back of another severe weather event is on the horizon and we are now entering another more settled spell for much of the state. The weather tending seasonal in terms of rainfall expectations and temperatures across the eastern third but out west, the temperatures are forecast to tend above average with no rainfall expected.

Even over the tropics the forecast heavy rainfall that was dotted on the modelling yesterday has now being shifted eastwards, highlighting the difficulty of forecasting tropical weather at any time of year through the Arafura and Torres Strait.

The impact of less tropical influences on the weather over northern Australia, means less moisture spreading through the interior of QLD and the NT and I have therefore removed rainfall for inland areas for the coming 10 days.

Coastal falls are also forecast to remain about where they should be for this time of year and no washouts are expected away from the FNQ tropics at this time.

Lets take a look at the settling spell and see how long it lasts.


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall has contracted to be a feature for coastal areas over the next 7-10 days with even the tropics seeing a large contraction of showers and storms to be over Cape York, meaning many centres through the first week of April should be dry and sunny with very warm to hot weather. Along the coast, showers will likely run more parallel to the coast with the southeast to southerly flow. The airstream looks to be relatively stable with shower coverage light to moderate at best. The trade winds over the northern parts also quite light and relaxed so at this time, only light to moderate showers in the onshore winds. But as mentioned, a nice chance to dry out in the southeast and southern inland after another round of flooding.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are forecast to only impact the far northern parts of Cape York on Thursday afternoon with dry and more stable southerly winds being propelled through the state thanks to the high near SA and the low east of NSW. So this dry airmass is knocking out the moisture supply and the ridge keeping things stable.

MEDIUM TERM WEATHER - April 6th-13th 2022

Moisture Watch Next Week

The moisture remains very limited through the outlook period and may begin to be drawn in via the upper level northwest flow from the Indian Ocean over WA. This may feed a trough in the region with a few showers and inland thunder. But overall the moisture is very much limited, the tropics seeing a large reduction in moisture overall, however we may see a wave of tropical weather pass east to west north of the nation which could be drawn south and southeast into the nation after this period. Will watch that risk. Low level moisture along the east coast in onshore easterly winds will produce a few showers but with the upper levels warm and stable, severe weather is unlikely here and quite frankly anywhere through the nation beyond the short term forecast above this.

Rainfall Anomalies

Now you may be thinking that because it is dry through the coming 2 weeks for many locations that it should be a brown map across the country. That is not how it quite works and in terms of seasonal expectations, this is the weather you should be seeing across the country. A reduction in rainfall for a 2-4 week period from late March into April is normal. It is what helps set up the term Autumn Break. A break in the pattern is still some 2-3 weeks away at the earliest and I do think we will see wetter weather emerge across the country from around Easter onwards and we usually see a significant drop in temperatures from ANZAC Day onwards into early May. So dry for a while in southern and central Australia and becoming drier over the northern tropics as we see the transition period begin through the region.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are likely to be seasonal to above seasonal in most areas away from the northeast coast of QLD and parts of the NSW coast where onshore winds will continue to feed low cloud and low level moisture. So temperatures here could be marginally below normal. For the southwest, the stagnant high sitting to the southwest of WA could land the far southwest in below average temperatures. Elsewhere the weather is forecast to remain warmer than normal, but not baking hot at this time, however will watch trends. Seasonal weather for the north with humidity values coming down.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The pattern is slowly stablising as outlined in the video. We just have to watch carefully the impact of the low pressure system about the northwest and west coast of WA and how that evolves in the coming day with a moderate risk of severe weather. Over the southeast there could be another wave of severe weather for far southeast NSW and east Gippsland which carries a low to moderate confidence. If you are not in these zones, settled weather is the headline forecast with clearing skies and more sunshine than cloud for the next 7-10 days. So take advantage of the quieter weather period.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

PW values are set to drop behind this trough moving through the southeast and as the low deepens in the Southern Tasman Sea, it will combine with the high pressure ridge over west of SA and lead to a strong southeast to southerly flow propelling the drier air northwards. This will filter throughout large parts of the nation with a clear and warm nation from Sunday through much of next week. Moisture may creep back in through the medium term from the northwest and over the tropics with a tropical wave and via the easterly winds over NSW and QLD.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - looking seasonal for Autumn across the whole state with no severe weather events slated in just yet.

More coming up from 8am EDT with a look at the severe weather potential tomorrow and Winter 2022, the first look at the middle of the year!

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