QLD - SHOWERS DECREASING FOR THE EAST, DRIER WEATHER ELSEWHERE BUT RAIN RETURNS FROM THE WEST.

There is still this persistent area of upper air low pressure along the coast leading to widespread showers along parts of the SE QLD coast, this gift that keeps on giving with widespread rainfall ongoing with this feature, but thankfully, it is set to ease and conditions should begin to dry out from later this week.


Away from the coast, most other areas are dry and stable with a large high pressure system sitting over the interior and southeast and ridging throughout keeping things settled. This high should begin to move out during tomorrow and allow the wind bearing to shift into the northeast and open the door to the next front coming into SA, pushing that southeast.


The trough pushing through the southeast may increase the chance of a few inland showers tomorrow and into Thursday for the southern inland, but most areas should go dry, once again the main influence from this system is to kick the blocking high away from Tasmania and this allowing the pattern to shift.


As we see the frontal weather to emerge over southern parts of the nation during the weekend, this will allow the flow pattern to turn westerly. The rainfall is expected to feature mainly south of the state with the feature, and a drier westerly flow will run across the nation leading to more traditional weather that QLD is used to seeing during this time of year.


However, a cloud band is forecast to develop over the northwest of WA, with significant rainfall running through the jet stream, bringing the wet weather into Central Australia and possibly into western and southern QLD. However the guidance is not overwhelming right now and the confidence in rainfall reaching the east remains to be seen and depends whether we have a new ridge deflecting the rainfall bearing component of the jet stream cloud band, away from us next week. So watch this space.


Overall, temperatures are forecast to come way down from where they have been and coupled with drier air, the conditions will feel much colder than where we have been. Frosts are also possible for southern areas later next week if we see a ridge win out.


Let's take a loo

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to decrease slowly along the coast with an upper trough moving away, the trough is forecast to take the rainfall out of the east coast with a drier period likely to unfold from later this week, through the weekend and into next week with lovely sunny skies for once. Over the interior we will see thickening cloud developing along a jet stream, but, the issue remains if the rainfall bearing component of the system can make it past Central Australia and bring widespread rainfall or whether it is eroded by the drier and more stable airmass in place thanks to high pressure ridging through north of the long wave trough over southeastern Australia which is bringing the colder and windy wet weather there. Overall, could be the driest weather of the year for many locations along the east coast!

Certainly, looking a lot drier through the interior with a dry airmass for now, but understand that the moisture running through from WA could scuttle this and rainfall may return back the charts with short notice over western and southern inland areas. So stay tuned with that cloud band out west.

MEDIUM TERM

May 31st-June 7th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall signals becoming quite cloudy at the moment, with not great guidance. But for now, expecting the bulk of the rainfall coming through with the system over the southeast keeping the totals at seasonal values for now, may be a little above normal in pockets. Over the northwest and west, a decaying rain band should fizzle out over Central Australia. A weak signal for follow up heavy rainfall developing through southwest WA during the end of this period. Drier bias continues along the coast for now with westerly winds.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are forecast to moderate over in the southeast after the cold outbreak to kick off Winter so the end of this period, temperatures should warm up a bit. In the west, persistent cloud cover will lead to below average temperatures. The northern tropics will have drier air, but the warmer than normal temperatures will continue. Clear skies in the southeast with high pressure following the cold outbreak may see frost form for a number of mornings.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Watching the pattern evolve from the easterly wind dominance and evolving into a traditional westerly wind regime leading to widespread cold weather and showery conditions for the south of the country from later in the weekend and into next week. While the southwest and the east remain somewhat drier and more settled under such arrangements, this won't last long with further systems to watch through the coming medium term taking us through to Queens Birthday weekend.

00z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture is still relatively above normal through the southeast and east of the country at this point in time and running through the jet stream aloft from northwest to the southeast with a good supply of rainfall for this time of year expected for the northwest of the nation. The weather over the southwest drier with a high close by and colder southerly flow. That cold dry air will blast through the southeast and south this weekend and into next week and we see a more typical weather pattern unfolding for early Winter.

00z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

00z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

00z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

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00z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

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A closer look in - the rainfall is favouring the westerly wind regime still and I am still watching that moisture running through the nation for the medium term. For now, we are seeing a drier picture for the region which is welcome for many who have been dealing with above average humidity and rainfall for months now.

More coming up tonight from 8pm EST looking at the broader data sets to see how they are handling the rainfall moving across the country. More coming up from 530am looking at the systems on the horizon and then the next weather video from 8am EST.



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