QLD - SHOWERS DECREASING ALONG THE COAST. DRY FOR MOST AREAS WITH A WARMER END TO THE MONTH.

OVERVIEW

A dry period of weather developing for inland areas is set to spread to the coast as the westerly wind regime begins to resume over much of the country, knocking out the block that has been found in the Tasman Sea for the past week. Showery weather may continue to impact coastal areas but the rainfall generally light for now with the pressure aloft rising and this suppressing rainfall opportunities.


As we move through this week, above average temperatures may begin to nose into the west of the state as a high skirts through to the east and a northwest wind regime establishes. Further ridging will continue to sit over the state and support clearer skies.


However modelling is starting to suggest the jet stream could bring in some moisture back into the state and this may see cloud develop and rainfall may develop over the interior at the end of the run back into the NT.,


SHORT TERM

Not a lot happening at the moment weather wise as we see a ridge sitting over the state for a good portion of the week. A few showers with light falls along the coast but the bulk of the state much quieter weather wise after we saw the severe weather of the weekend.


As we move into the weekend, there may be a warm up over the north and western parts of the state as warmer air is brought in from the west. A jet stream aloft is expected to bring moisture in from the Indian Ocean, and whether that can be brought into the state aligned with lower pressure remains to be seen but there is the chance of widespread cloud building at the end of the weekend into next week with rainfall possibly moving in from the NT next week.


LONG TERM/AREAS TO WATCH

The major cold fronts that are forecast to approach the southwest and west of the nation. The moisture is forecast to increase in advance of the fronts and troughs as they pass from east to west with the jet stream likely to become more active as we track through the weekend and into next week. This likely setting the stage for more widespread rainfall opportunities over the country as we move into August.


The Indian Ocean is expected to strengthen over the weeks ahead and we should be seeing the unfolding of the moisture into the jet stream and this then surging throughout the nation. As I have kept saying that the moisture running through the nation being picked up by frontal weather will dictate the spread and intensity of rainfall chances throughout the medium term.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - SUNDAY 24TH JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Not a great deal over the coming week, just a few showers at times along the coast with the onshore push. A few showers may continue through the weekend and into next week with mainly light falls over tropical areas while the remainder of the coast clears. As moisture continues to move in from the west and northwest, this may feed into the jet stream and we may start to see widespread rainfall developing over the southeast and south of the country and possible light falls over the central parts of the nation that could nose into the state from next week. But confidence is not high on this.

MEDIUM TERM

July 31st-August 7th, 2022

Moisture Watch

The moisture is increasing through the end of the month and likely to remain in high coverage throughout the nation as we enter August. Now there will likely be a lot of cloud moving throughout the nation, the heaviest of more concentrated rainfall is more likely to occur on and west of the divide in the east and through the southern states and heaviest over in WA. Some decent signals for a deeper rainfall event to develop over the eastern inland, through parts of western QLD and northwest NSW with an inland feature.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies are coming up over the eastern and southeast inland with the convergence of moisture and unstable air leading to widespread cloud developing and areas of moderate rainfall over normally dry areas at this time of year. Seasonal rainfall expected through much of the south of the country, the dry season continues over most of the north though a few showers may keep the rainfall totals higher about Cape York. There may be some further above average rainfall over the SWLD of the nation with further moisture intrusion.

Temperature Anomalies

The heat engine is continuing to wake up and this is one of the areas to watch, as many love to focus on rainfall - this is another element that may see the rainfall increase in coverage as the thermal gradients become more dynamic and tighter, with moisture running through the clash zone, it opens many areas up to rainfall developing above the norm for August.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and context.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further information and context as we track the wave of low pressure moving over WA later this week and see how that interacts with the moisture spreading through via the jet stream.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture profile continues to increase throughout the outlook but there is context to the moisture producing widespread rainfall and where that moisture combines with the low pressure will continue to chop and change resulting in rainfall moving around. But the TREND is for moisture increasing from the northwest and north and possibly via easterly winds in the coming weeks too thanks to elevated SSTs surrounding the entire nation.

00Z ICON- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 8 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - dry for most of this week but we may start to see the moisture spreading through the jet stream and also via the upper northwest winds from next week. That could start to see cloud increasing with rainfall numbers coming up. The moisture over the northern tropics also increasing as well, though not wet, the dry season vibes may be starting to decrease over the next week or two.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall and this will focus once again the medium term as we have some rainfall in the short term to get through over Southern Australia.


0 views0 comments