QLD - SHOWERS DECREASE FOR THE EAST, DRY INLAND WITH WARMER DAYS ON THE WAY.

The weather looking much more settled across the state as we see a decent slab of drier air combine with a ridge running through the state, and an upper ridge over the north also seeing a return to more seasonal weather over the state. The weather is forecast to remain largely unchanged for inland areas this week, though cloud may begin to increase on Thursday with a few showers and thunderstorms developing near a decaying upper trough over NSW, the northern aspect of that clipping the region before the feature slips to the southeast.


As the high in the Tasman Sea moves further away, this will help shift the winds into the north and then northwest and drier weather develops post trough, across much of the state. The weekend weather mostly dry for much of the state, with a few showers over the tropics.


Stronger rainfall signals are forecast to continue for southern and southeast areas of the nation which is welcome for these areas, and with that westerly focus becoming more established over the nation, this will unfurl a drier period for the state.


One possible complication to this is the jet stream, the moisture content over the Indian Ocean is well above normal and could lead to a cloud band developing over the western interior with rain. This could spread through Central Australia and bring rainfall back to interior QLD next week. So that will be one to watch.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to ease across much of the state as the airmass begins to dry out with upper high pressure over the northern tropics and ridge at the surface extending a drier airmass over inland areas. The showers about today will begin to contract further to the coast and most of the inland should be dry. As we move into the latter part of the week, scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms may develop along a weakening pressure trough that will be sliding southeast through the eastern parts of the nation. The bulk of the rainfall should be found over the southeast and with a westerly wind profile developing, this too will help keep the rainfall south of the state. A stronger system running through the southeast will keep the showery periods over the states there. But a cloud band developing north of the long wave passing south of the nation could promote a large cloud band over WA, which could travel east through Central Australia and into QLD, which may in fact bring up the rainfall across the state once again next week. Confidence in that is quite low.

Rainfall totals along the coast could exceed 50mm in the southeast regions but ease generally over the coming days. There could be another burst of showery weather developing during the weekend with a weak low offshore the coast, but this is dependent on how close the low is too the coast. Certainly, looking drier for much of the inland during the coming week.

MEDIUM TERM

May 30th-June 6th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall is forecast to build over the northwest of the nation with another cloud band before sweeping south and or southeast with moderate to heavy falls over the interior. Showery weather over the south and southeast of the country and back over the southwest will be via cold fronts but nothing excessive at this time, but this could change further. Drier signal continues for the east coast.

Temperature Anomalies

Warmer than average weather is forecast to persist over the northern tropics with an upper high. Cooler than normal weather is forecast to emerge over the western interior with cloudy skies and periods of rain. A cold outbreak should be winding down through this period over the southeast inland.

DATA - More information can be found via the video tonight and to cut down your reading time as well.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The main system in the west of the nation providing the severe weather is expected to ease over the coming days, the rainfall on the east coast also easing in the coming days as the high to the southeast begins to move away. The pattern shift is still likely to unfold in the coming week with the rainfall focus forecast to develop over southern Australia, via the westerly wind belt moving further north and bringing the cold fronts over southern and southeast Australia. A cloud band today and tomorrow over inland areas should degrade in the next few days with drier air moving through the interior. Then another cloud band is forecast to develop during the weekend into next week with the chance of another large band of rain developing for inland WA, this one may sweep the nation, but confidence is low on this idea. One thing that does carry a higher chance of occurring is the shift from above average temperatures to below average temperatures across the nation as we track into the first period of Winter.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture content is very high for many areas of the nation at the moment, with heavy rainfall occurring in pockets of the SWLD and over the east coast of the country in recent days. The moisture is set to remain in place for the days ahead but the trigger is not really aligned with the moisture content in place across the nation. The next best chance of rainfall will be via a weakening cold front over southern and southeast areas of the nation later this week. A stronger trio of could fronts are forecast to develop south of the nation during the weekend and then sweep northwards next week. A colder and drier airmass is forecast to surge north through the nation next week leading to below average temperatures setting up. Ahead of that through the interior, there may be a broad intrusion of moisture running through the jet stream with another interior rainfall event for WA, but this time may spread into Central Australia and into QLD. Low chance of that moisture being pulled south into the Ag Areas of SA and VIC.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the rainfall over the east coast eases and finally with the winds turning more westerly across the nation and the jet stream cloud band is an element to watch next week and again in the medium term for inland areas.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall and more for the early birds from 530am EST, next video from 8am EST and then your climate video from 11am EST Tuesday. Lots on!

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