QLD - SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE COAST, INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. POSSIBLY DRY LATE NEXT WEEK

The weather has certainly been very wet in recent weeks and the lingering moisture that won’t quit is still producing showers for parts of the coast after heavy downpours in some locations In the past day or two. The lingering moisture levels are forecast to link into a developing upper trough along the coast seeing an increase of showers for areas between Mackay and Noosa.


Forecasting how much moisture moves inland and turns into showers and thunderstorms remains to be seen and this information will continue to change as we move through the forecast period so keep watch of the trends.


As the upper trough deepens during Saturday, rainfall could become heavy and there may be some flash flooding about for some. Sunday the upper trough is forecast to ease along the coast and the inland with some clearance for the coast forecast into early next week for the northern coast, but showers in the northeast flow could continue as the trough moves away.


Inland areas should turn much warmer as a northerly flow develops and moisture hangs about. The overnight temperatures are forecast to stay above average like the day time temperatures in a soupy airmass. A front approaching the southeast will help to turn winds into the north and push the high out to NZ, once that happens a drier signal develops for the east coast of QLD.


There could be a band of rain and thunderstorms moving through the interior and push through western and southern QLD later next week into the last weekend of May with a drier picture to follow in a westerly flow.


It does appear the end of the month we turn drier with the more traditional westerly flow establishing through the south of the state and drier air surging through the subtropics and tropics too.


Let's take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to continue along the coast and east of the divide with some isolated heavy falls possible with the slow moving motion of the showers and thunderstorms about. A trough deepening later Thursday and Friday will help the rainfall coverage increase along the coast and move into the central eastern inland with moderate to heavy falls possible. Some heavy falls leading to flash flooding along the coast is quite possible between Mackay and Noosa during Saturday before the upper trough moves offshore. At this stage, the trough is forecast to move east far enough with showery weather to continue with a northeast flow. Once we get a cold front moving into the southeast of the nation mid to late next week, this will shove the strong high responsible for the onshore flow, out to the east leading to a drier signal for many of us and warmer temperatures continuing. A band of showers and storms will be moving through the southeast and central interior and this band of rain could come through western and southern districts towards the end of the month followed by a westerly flow.

Rainfall looks to be heavy about parts of the Central and Wide Bay Coast with the upper trough during Friday through Sunday and with showers continuing into next week, some areas could exceed 100mm again through the period. Some rainfall will move inland but taper off to dry the further west you go. Conditions are forecast to dry out further if we see a westerly wind regime unfold over the state.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

May 25th-June 1st, 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

There is more agreement that once we lose the strong cold front and rainfall at the end of next week through the southeast that further showers will follow in a westerly wind regime over southern Australia but seasonal expectations for now. The weather turns wet again from the northwest of the nation through to the southeast with some chance of further above average rainfall likely for the interior of WA, through SA and into western NSW possible. Further rainfall knocks on the door over the southwest of WA during this time as well.

Temperature Anomalies

The warmer bias strengthens over the east with the northwest flow strengthening ahead of a series of cold fronts. The western interior still cooler than normal with the westerly wind regime starting to progress into SA through this period with that expected to move further east during the end of the month into early Winter. So, this could be the last few days of 20C+ weather over a widespread area in the south and east until about September.

DATA - Refer to video for more information


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More information can be found in the video tonight to break down the quite volatile picture that is giving you the larger rainfall spread right across the nation. I will have more in the models and rainfall update coming up from 8pm EST.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The dry cold shift over the southeast will lead to areas of frost tonight with some of that severe in places. Deeper moisture spreading through from WA into SA hits a brick wall and little rainfall will move beyond where it is right now, though high cloud will drift across the nation. Deeper moisture coming in via easterly winds will feed an upper trough over QLD bringing heavy rainfall from the weekend before clearing, but showery warm soupy easterly winds continue into next week. Next surge of deep moisture from the Indian Ocean reaches the west of the nation Sunday and traverses the state before moving into the Bight along a weakening cold front. Another surge of deep moisture reaches the west of the nation again on Wednesday next week and once again later next week with one or both of these waves to spread rainfall chances across the nation from west to east.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - rainfall numbers will continue to bounce around for the inland and hence why there is not much change to the charting from me tonight but certainly keep abreast of the forecast notes and videos morning and night to follow the trends. This will change from run to run so don't count what the yr.no apps etc. say as gospel.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall


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