The weather has been fairly stagnant in distribution, not much in the way of rainfall over the inland. A dry hot airmass has driven above average temperatures and sunny skies for the past week which has been welcome for many areas to dry out.
That same stagnant pressure pattern has seen easterly winds remain the dominant flow over the state, so that has see widespread showers over coastal areas with moderate to heavy falls in some locations exposed to the southeast to easterly flow. The trough that brought the heavier thunderstorm focus has begun to open up over the state so the coverage of storms for coastal areas is expected to dwindle.
There are signals the pattern is about to turn wetter and more unsettled with showers and thunderstorms expected to become more of a feature from the weekend over inland areas, especially southern and central inland QLD extending back into the NT. The SAM is turning positive and this is allowing the easterly winds to freshen, more showers are forecast along the coastal regions as well.
With those easterly winds over the state dragging in more moisture, now we have a trough over inland areas, that will promote more showers and thunderstorms across inland communities with the risk of severe thunderstorm activity likely to return from the weekend and through much of next week.
Up over the tropics, the trade winds are expected to drag in more showers and moderate falls. The monsoon is likely to redevelop as the MJO rotates around northern Australia. We could see enhanced risks of tropical low activity as well, leading to more enhanced rainfall for the Gulf and Cape York. Now, if that last element does verify, then we could well see moisture and rainfall chances increasing from the north and if a trough is in place for inland areas, more widespread rainfall is possible.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is expected to be confined to the coast for the next few days, especially north of about Rockhampton. Some moderate falls are likely about the east coast of Cape York and down to about Cardwell. The rainfall in this region is likely to feature most days through to next weekend with the rainfall increasing gradually as we go along. Over inland areas, dry until about Saturday, that is when we will likely see more showers and thunderstorms developing along a trough which will become stationary, laying northwest to southeast across the inland. This will be the primary focus for storms. The trough will remain slow moving next week, possibly moving west as the easterly winds freshen. Those easterly winds will see showers increasing for all coastal areas, possibly heavy about the southeast. The trough will be fed with that moisture from the east with moderate to heavy falls possible with thunderstorms. The presence of the positive SAM and MJO pulsating through the 3-5 phase will keep the wet signal going through the medium term as well.
Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday
Thunderstorms are expected over Cape York, inland of the ranges towards the west and over the northern Gulf Country. The storms are unlikely to be severe at this stage. Stable air keeping the rest of the state storm free.
DATA - Refer to the video for more information with regards to the short and medium term analysis
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks
The nation still remains in a dry airmass with only showery weather for the far east coast and along the southeast coast with a weak trough and front. Showers and storms quite thin in the air over parts of the northern tropics. Over the course of the next 5 days, the upper pattern will start to cool and become more unstable over much of the north and through eastern Australia. The climate drivers which have been covered off extensively, the SAM and MJO, will rotate around to be in phase, producing a pattern more supportive of widespread rainfall for northern and eastern Australia, starting about coastal areas but then spreading inland. In advance of more widespread rainfall over the inland of the nation, scattered showers and storms should feature through much of the NT, QLD, NSW and extend into VIC before we see more organised weather emerge later in the period and into the medium term. Models now showing the monsoonal weather to emerge at the end of the month into early March.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks
No change to the guidance with the moisture gradually increasing across the central, northern and eastern parts of the nation with the wind patterns supporting the moisture to pool over the southeast and east of the nation. The weather over in the southwest and south are expected to be drier than normal with the prevailing wind pattern running over land, meaning dry hot winds for southern WA and western SA and parts of the southern NT.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to video for more
00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to video for more
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
Refer to video for more and the state based fly around and analysis
A closer look in - this rainfall guide will be changing I can assure you!
More details coming up tomorrow from 8am EDT with a look tomorrow at Winter 2022 at a glance and to see where the data takes us and how that stacks up against previous outlooks and years.